Global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels for the next five years, with the annual average potentially reaching as high as 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have found, PA Media/dpa reported.
New UN climate predictions released on Thursday suggest mean annual temperatures near the earth’s surface over the years 2026-2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The analysis from the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK’s Met Office finds an 86 percent chance that one year between now and 2030 will break the record for the warmest year.
It comes after 2024’s record temperatures broke - temporarily at least - the 1.5°C threshold to which countries have agreed to limit global warming to avoid its most dangerous impacts.
The WMO and Met Office found a 91 percent chance that at least one year in the next five will do the same.
There is also a 75 percent chance the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1950-1990 average, according to the scientists.
The climate models show there is a possibility that the global average temperature could even exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels before 2030, although the scientists behind the analysis said it was “exceptionally unlikely”, with less than one percent chance it could happen.
Elsewhere, they found that Arctic temperatures over the next five winters are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020 - an anomaly more than three and a half times that of the global mean temperature anomaly over the same period.
They also warn that northern Europe could see some very wet winters over the next five years, which is one of the key climate hazards for the region, bringing with it the risk of flooding.
The UN Paris climate treaty, agreed in 2015, saw countries commit to action to curb global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to curb rises to 1.5°C in a bid to avoid the worst impacts of rising sea levels, drought, floods, heatwaves, and extreme storms brought on by climate change.
The world’s average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for the first time in 2024 as an “El Nino” climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific pushed up temperatures on top of human-caused global warming.
The likelihood of the next five years being above 1.5°C does not mean the threshold has been permanently breached, as the figures for long-term warming are averaged over 20 years.
Scientists say warming is currently around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, measured from a baseline of 1850-1900 before the global large-scale burning of fossil fuels took off.
The WMO and Met Office found the five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific indicates a tendency towards El Nino weather conditions, particularly in the years 2027 and 2028.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”
The global annual to decadal climate update is issued annually by the WMO and is produced by the Met Office.
- Bernama
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