N SEMBILAN POLLS | With the Negeri Sembilan election campaign past its midpoint, it is still a mystery why caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun made a “suicidal decision” to contest in the Umno stronghold of Linggi.
So far, all readable signs seem not to be in Aminuddin's favour.
The Linggi state seat is historically regarded as a BN stronghold, with the only recorded instance of the seat changing hands being in 1969 via a DAP candidate.
Since then, Linggi has remained a BN bastion.
This perception is linked to the legacy of veteran Umno political leader Isa Samad, who inherited the seat from his father Samad Ismail, down to the seat's current incumbent, Faizal Ramli.
After several days camping out and surveying the ground in Linggi, Malaysiakini has gained a clearer picture of the challenge facing Aminuddin when the state heads to the polls this Saturday.
Loyal to BN
For one, the majority of Malay voters Malaysiakini met have been loyal BN voters for generations.
A voter who wished to be known only as Haji Mad shared that sentiment, along with confidence that the seat will remain difficult for Pakatan Harapan to challenge.
Despite Aminuddin's status as a high-profile candidate, Haji Mad said the politician has been unable to win support, particularly among the older demographic.
"The majority of voters here are (for) BN, especially the older folk, (but some) youth are also with BN, following in their parents' footsteps.
"Besides that, the youth here are also close to Faizal, who is easily accessible.
"If you ask me, it’s quite difficult for Aminuddin to win here even though he was the menteri besar," he said.
Plagued by adat perpatih crisis
Aminuddin, who was sworn in as menteri besar in August 2023, also appears to carry another burden that will further hamper his chances of pulling off an upset in Linggi.
According to Haji Mad, Linggi - located within the Sungai Ujong territory (luak) - is home to a community that still strictly adheres to adat perpatih (customary law).
He explained that the local community blames Aminuddin for the ongoing crisis between the undangs (ruling chiefs) and the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan.
"Although they don’t speak about it openly, voters discuss this customary issue in coffee shops, and most of them blame Aminuddin," he said.
Salleh Ismail echoed Haji Mad’s statements, believing the issue will influence voter support for Aminuddin.
Voter composition, flood issue
Linggi is a Malay-majority seat with a composition of 61 percent Malay voters, while Chinese and Indian voters make up nearly 18 percent of the electorate each, with the remainder being Orang Asli and other races.
Malay voters are located around Tanjung Agas, Pekan Linggi, traditional villages, Bandar Sunggala, Kampung Sawah Sunggala, Pasir Panjang, and several other areas.
Chinese voters form small pockets in Pekan Linggi, Pasir Panjang, and Bandar Sunggala, which are polling districts contributing the largest votes to BN.
In Pekan Linggi, several Chinese voters met expressed anger towards the state's Harapan administration.
A Chinese voter who wished to be known only as Ah Chai was dissatisfied with the Aminuddin-led state government, saying it failed to resolve the flood problem in the area.
"The flood problem here hasn't been solved to this day, even though Aminuddin promised multiple times to fix it.
"Every time it floods, our property gets destroyed, and we suffer losses - when will this be resolved?" he asked.
Govt failure to address fisherfolk problems
Another voter, who only wanted to be known as Uncle Lim, voiced a similar sentiment. He described the flood issue as a lingering problem without a solution.
"When floods come, our belongings are ruined and we lose out.
“Until when (how long do we have to endure this)? The government has yet to resolve this problem," he said.
Linggi is also home to residents working as fisherfolk, who mostly ply their trade along coastal waters.
During the survey, fisherfolk voiced their problems, including the dilapidated jetty in the area and rising costs due to fuel price hikes.
They expressed dissatisfaction over the issues, which they claim the government had failed to address.
Candidate factor
Another factor that will complicate Aminuddin’s mission is the reputation of the seat’s incumbent, Faizal, whom most voters met in the area seemed satisfied with in terms of service.
This sentiment was even shared by Harapan supporter Saufi Miad, who admitted that Faizal - who is also a former state exco - has served well there.
"Even though Faizal is not from the same party... honestly, he is a good leader. But why do we want to change? Because we want better, and Tok Min (Aminuddin) as chief minister can certainly offer better," he explained.
Saufi described Aminuddin's move to contest in a BN stronghold as a bold one.
Amid perceptions that his Linggi move was linked to his association with former PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli, Aminuddin insisted this was a political decision and not an attempt to bury his career.
Aminuddin vacated his seat in Sikamat - viewed as a safe seat - to make way for his political secretary, Nor Azman Mohamad.
While this is not the first time Harapan has gambled with a caretaker menteri besar, or "poster boy," in a risky seat, the factors behind fielding Aminuddin in Linggi remain a mystery.
Bersatu splitting votes
Aminuddin’s campaign has been viewed as unremarkable, with his machinery focusing on his experience as menteri besar and the state administration's performance, as well as playing up sentiments against BN as "traitors" who caused an early state election.
The only factor that might work in Aminuddin’s favour is that the seat will see a three-cornered fight, involving a candidate from Bersatu.
Aminuddin stands a chance of pulling off a surprise if he can secure full support from Chinese and Indian voters, win a significant number of Malay votes, and if, at the same time, Bersatu candidate Zamri Said manages to split Malay voter support to dent Faizal's odds.
In the 2023 state election, which saw a straight fight, Zamri lost to Faizal by a 1,461-vote majority.
What is almost certain is that Aminuddin faces a "mission impossible" in Linggi with less than a week of campaigning to go. - Mkini
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