Has Najib played all his trump cards?

QUESTION TIME | Prime Minister Najib Razak faces a number of major problems with respect to the forthcoming general elections which have to be held by August next year at the latest, less than one year from now.

His biggest headache is how to counter negative public perception effectively through means such as announcements, deals and meetings and then choosing the best time to call the elections. As election approaches, he has played a number of trump cards which begs the question as to whether he has any more left to play and whether the ones he has played so far have resolutely helped his chances.

Let’s look at some of the serious problems he faces and what have been his trump cards and how they have played out. Some of the crucial problems as far as the public is concerned and the prospects for the general election include the alleged theft in the billions at 1MDB, rising prices from the imposition of the goods and services tax or GST and the declining ringgit, getting solid Malay support without alienating others, regaining Chinese support, increasing Indian support and taking care of Sabah and Sarawak interests.

Here is a list of some of the trump cards he played with a brief analysis of how they turned out:

1. Trump that wasn’t a trump. The obvious reason for meeting US President Donald Trump was to downplay the seriousness of the alleged theft at 1MDB which the US Department of Justice (DOJ) puts at US$4.5 billion (RM19 billion) while reports quoting the Malaysian auditor-general’s report puts the amount unaccounted for at US$7 billion (RM30 billion).

However, Najib was ridiculed widely in the social media for offering to help strengthen the US economy and for not getting anything in return for the money he pledged to buy US goods and investments.

Still, perhaps a section of the general public would buy the erroneous view that the DOJ is not likely to pursue criminal proceedings involving the stolen money at 1MDB because the US president is meeting him. With all the bad press over Trump these days and Najib’s own gaffe, that trump bombed.

2. Setting up the Forex Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) after 25 years. This is to clearly tarnish the image of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad who is now in opposition and at the forefront of efforts to unseat Najib.

Also, the hope was probably to taint jailed Pakatan Harapan leader Anwar Ibrahim, Mahathir’s current ally united only by their common aim to get rid of Najib, as well with the same brush. Anwar was finance minister when the scandal was first revealed in 1994.

But proceedings at the RCI indicate that it won’t be possible to pin the blame on Mahathir or Anwar although it was established that the losses were huge, at RM31.5 billion. The results of the trump card are mixed at best, highlighting that losses were large under Mahathir’s leadership but still raising questions as to why the RCI was set up only now.

3. Moving closer to China through projects such as the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL). Najib has pitched this project as a major piece of cooperation between China and Malaysia in addition to others such as the Forest City project in Johor Bahru.

But it is not clear whether this is really all that beneficial given that the price for ECRL is rather high, it is being built mainly with Chinese input and it is extremely unlikely to be feasible.

Some sections of the Chinese community may be moved but not a lot especially since Najib was later quoted as having said that the Chinese may be the first casualty of any unrest in the country, a rather unfortunate threat that is bound to boomerang on him.

4. Moving closer to PAS to get Malay support. This includes supporting amendments to the law to give increased power to Islamic authorities, a move highly unpopular with Chinese and Indians.

More importantly, from an election point of view, this raised hackles in Sabah and Sarawak, considered to be fixed deposit stakes for BN. Eventually, the tabling of the proposed amendments was deferred.

This dalliance with PAS is a double-edged sword and has serious dangers of badly offending Sabah and Sarawak even as some Malay votes are garnered. A dangerous card to play.

5. Mat Taib was an anti-climax of a trump card. That former chief minister of Selangor caught with millions of dollars in his bag in Australia and declaring at his court case that he did not understand English and therefore did not know it was illegal.

So, he is rejoining Umno - that’s no big deal. So why all that fuss? Was there something else on the cards?

Was Muhammad Muhammad Taib indeed supposed to bring along more than a handful of state assemblypersons to swing the balance of power in Selangor? Well, that did not happen, and Najib looked like a fool yet again.

6. Asking for two-thirds majority to ban unilateral conversions. When MIC leader Dr S Subramaniam asked Najib at an MIC gathering to ban unilateral conversions to Islam by one parent, his immediate riposte was ‘give us two-thirds majority and we will amend the Constitution accordingly’.

Really? Many feel a bill is enough rather than a change to the constitution for this. And it seems to imply that gaining two-thirds majority is not on the cards anytime.

If he got that, what will he tell PAS when he changes the Constitution to bar unilateral conversions for there is no way in hell he is going to get a two-thirds majority without PAS’ help. With that kind of response, Najib will end up alienating more Indians.

Well, there are still more opportunities for playing trump cards although the window is slowly closing and will be firmly shut before long. The forthcoming budget offers some chances and we may see more goodies thrown to the needy - higher civil servant bonuses perhaps and higher handouts through BR1M.

But so far, those trump cards he has played have not been game changers which such cards should really be. Even so, that does not necessarily mean that he will lose the elections. They may win because of the disarray in the opposition which may be fatally fractured if there is no pact at least among them to avoid three-cornered fights.

It looks like the opposition has gifted a trump card in favour of BN, a real trump card. Rather bad play at a crucial, critical time!

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P GUNASEGARAM used to tremendously enjoy the card game of trumps when he was younger - not that it taught him any tricks though. E-mail: t.p.guna@gmail.com. - Mkini