THE Port Dickson poll on Saturday will buck the trend of low voter turnout in recent by-elections because of the constituents’ excitement at getting the future prime minister as their MP, Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) predicts.
IDE predicted, based on a qualitative survey, a voter turnout of 55% to 60% and a winning margin of more than 30,000 for Anwar Ibrahim, who is in a seven-cornered fight.
IDE chief executive director Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said this was because Anwar was presenting himself as the next prime minister, which had raised voters’ hopes and expectations of what he could do for the federal seat.
“If there is a voter turnout of 60%, it will be good enough. Anwar will get a majority of more than 30,000.
“One of the main reasons we found that people will vote for Anwar is because he will be the next prime minister. They are proud that the PM will come from Port Dickson,” Redzuan told The Malaysian Insight.
The survey was conducted on 1,084 respondents living in Port Dickson via face-to-face interviews three days before nominations for the by-election on September 30. All five state seats and 32 polling districts in Port Dickson, which has 77,750 voters, were covered in the survey.
The survey did not account for some 40% of the registered voters living outside Port Dickson.
Redzuan said the “Anwar factor” would boost the voter turnout above that of the three previous by-elections in the state seats of Sungai Kandis, Seri Setia and Balakong, which were all below 50%.
The Universiti Selangor vice-chancellor said Anwar’s opponents stood little chance. PAS is likely to retain slightly less than the votes it secured in GE14 while former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Isa Samad would get the traditional voters.
“Anwar’s closest competitors are PAS and Isa. You need to look at the candidates and the parties they represent.
“Isa does not represent Barisan Nasional. From our survey, BN voters will shy away from Isa,” Redzuan said of the former Umno man and ex-Felda chairman who has been embroiled in scandal.
Umno and BN are not contesting the by-election.
Isa is standing as an independent and Redzuan said history showed that independents did not fare well. Any support for him will come from the Bangan Pinang and Linggi state seats, where he has family.
PAS, Redzuan said, would be “lucky” to get 5,000 votes. PAS had obtained 6,549 votes in a three-cornered fight for the seat in GE14.
“In GE14, some voters did not like Barisan Nasional but also would not vote for Pakatan Harapan as the PKR candidate, Danyal Balagopal Abdullah is not a Malay.
“The alternative was PAS. So, they voted PAS not by default but because they did not like other two candidates. But this time around, there is Anwar,” Redzuan.
As for the other independents, Redzuan said they would likely lose their deposits.
The biggest obstacle for Anwar to win handsomely are voters who live outside Port Dickson and who might be reluctant to come back on polling day. This would mainly concern Chinese voters, Redzuan said.
“The problem with the Chinese vote is not the lack of support but because many of them are younger voters, living and working outside.
“Many of them are working in Singapore. I don’t think those working in Singapore will come back. But those in places nearby like Seremban and Nilai will come back and vote,” he said.
Boost from Dr Mahathir
Redzuan also felt that Anwar would be able to win over army voters who were casting their ballots in early voting today.
This is because Pakatan Harapan is now the federal government and there is no more the pressure of having to support Barisan Nasional.
“Barisan Nasional is not a factor anymore. With the new government, things have changed. The military votes will go to Anwar, about 7,000 votes,” Redzuan said.
The appearance of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad in Port Dickson to stump for Anwar will also bolster the former deputy prime minister’s chances.
“It will even push Umno supporters to vote for Anwar.
“With the presence of Dr Mahathir and Daim (Zainuddin), it kills all the rumours of a plot against Anwar,” he said, referring to the Council of Eminent Persons chairman who was speculated to be plotting against Anwar’s succession of Dr Mahathir as prime minister.
Voters in Port Dickson are 43% of Malays, 33% of Chinese, 22% of Indians and 2% others.
In GE14, the PKR candidate Danyal Balagopal Abdullah won 36,225 votes, defeating the BN and PAS candidates who received 18,515 and 6,594 votes, respectively.
To boost voter turnout, PKR is embarking on a campaign called “Be a part of history” in the final days ahead of polling.
“They (PKR) are using the tagline to tell voters that they will be part of history,” Redzuan said.
Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun who is from PKR, will also be sending letters to private sector companies urging them to let their employers return to vote.
Indians the kingmakers in Port Dickson, survey finds
INDIAN voters will be the kingmakers in the Port Dickson by-election, a qualitative survey by Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) has found.
PKR president-elect Anwar Ibrahim has 80% of Indian votes in the parliamentary constituency, and can swing the remaining 20% in his favour, IDE chief executive director Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman told The Malaysian Insight.
Indians comprise 22%, or 17,000, of Port Dickson voters. A sizeable number of them live in Lukut and Chuah, two of the five state constituencies under Port Dickson.
Redzuan said Anwar could swing the remaining 20% by increasing engagement with the community – which is exactly what he has done in recent days, attending cultural events dressed in traditional clothing and dancing along to Tamil songs.
“As it is, Indian support is already at 80%. With the singing and dancing every night, it could be higher come election day,” said Redzuan.
He said Anwar has been able to connect with the Indian community in part because he is in line to be the next prime minister under a Pakatan Harapan succession plan.
The expectation is high that an MP who is prime minister will be able to develop the seaside town, which has lacklustre tourism and a lack of job opportunities.
The prime minister-in-waiting is up against six candidates – former Negri Sembilan menteri besar Isa Samad, air force veteran Mohd Nazari Mokhtar of PAS, Anwar’s former aide and sodomy accuser Mohd Saiful Azlan Bukhari, and three other independents.
The Indian vote will be the kingmaker as Malays are likely to be split between Anwar, Isa and Nazari, while there are concerns that the Chinese vote, though leaning towards Anwar, may not be enough if outstation voters do not return on polling day.
Redzuan said IDE’s survey was conducted via face-to-face interviews with 1,084 Malay, Chinese and Indian respondents over three days, from September 28 to 30. Surveyors covered the five state seats and 32 polling districts in Port Dickson, which has a total of 75,770 registered voters.
The poll did not take into consideration 40% of registered voters living outside Port Dickson.
The seat was an MIC stronghold before PKR wrested it in 2008.
Redzuan said ex-Umno man Isa will not fare well among Indians, as he is unable to offer voters much compared with a candidate from the ruling government.
“Chinese and Indian voters will likely not vote for Isa. Previously, he was with Umno, and the party could give them something. But now, they get nothing if they vote for him. At least PH can promise them something.”
The Universiti Selangor vice-chancellor said Anwar might even be able to draw some Umno and MCA votes, as MIC is not contesting the by-election.
“Umno and MCA used to vote for MIC during the Barisan Nasional era, but now, they will vote for Anwar or boycott the polls. They will likely not vote for PAS or Isa.”
Besides Indians, Port Dickson’s electorate comprises 43% Malays, Chinese (33%) and others (2%).
Early voting kicked off this morning, while polling day has been set for Saturday.
– https://www.themalaysianinsight.com
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