Things are getting pretty bad in the Gulf Countries. Here is some Dubai news :
Downturn in Dubai
Dubai suffering major economic recession
shopping centres, hotels, bars close doors
Dubai rapidly turning into ghost town
closure of many facilities, tourist sites
Dubai gold souk empty for first time in 40 years
sales of real estate in Dubai dropped 46% in 1st quarter 2018
sales of previously owned properties fell 24%
There is (or perhaps now "has been") a very strange way of doing business in Dubai : the use of postdated cheques. Millions of buying and selling deals were done by issuing post dated cheques, about a million cheques being post dated by a year.
The economy in Dubai has been functioning on people issuing post dated cheques to each other. According to the video above:
From Jan - May 2018, a total of 26 billion dirhams (about RM29 billion) worth of cheques have bounced. That is 1.2 million cheques in total. 39% of cheques issued in 2017 were due in 2018.
RM29 BILLION worth of cheques bounced!!
The GDP of Dubai is about RM400 Billion.
Dubai's economic growth in 2018 is about 3.5%.
(If you minus for inflation - say 3.5% - their GDP growth is zero.)
RM29 billion bounced cheques represents 7% of their GDP !!
(If you minus for inflation - say 3.5% - their GDP growth is zero.)
RM29 billion bounced cheques represents 7% of their GDP !!
They are screwed.
Property values in Dubai crashed from 2300 dirhams psf down to 600 dirhams psf - down to only 25% of its previous value.
The problem in Dubai is even if property values are only 25% of their previous value, WHY would people buy them? The population of Dubai is about 2.5 million of which 85% are foreign expats. Only 15% are local Arabs. Obviously the 85% expats are not going to buy the properties. Can the remaining 15% locals (375,000 Arabs) take up the slack? But what for? What will they do with an empty skyscraper in Dubai? The mirage is disappearing.
The problem in Dubai is even if property values are only 25% of their previous value, WHY would people buy them? The population of Dubai is about 2.5 million of which 85% are foreign expats. Only 15% are local Arabs. Obviously the 85% expats are not going to buy the properties. Can the remaining 15% locals (375,000 Arabs) take up the slack? But what for? What will they do with an empty skyscraper in Dubai? The mirage is disappearing.
Hotel room rates are only 30% of what they were before - a 70% discount.
18 hotels shut down in one month alone including Savoy, Ramada, etc.
There was also a well known Pakistani run private equity firm called Abraaj Capital in Dubai. Abraaj has now gone bust. They issued cheques for US48 million (RM192 Million) which have all bounced.
Why is this relevant to us? Well there are a few reasons.
With the BN/UMNO being kicked out we are seeing the same things happening to a very large number of people who were previously feeding off the UMNO / BN gravy train. Their train has come to a sudden stop. They are finding out now (just like Dubai) that they never developed real economic skills. Minus the easy oil money, they cannot survive.
Millions of expatriate workers (Indian, Pakistani, Egyptians, Lebanese etc) work throughout the Gulf countries. Millions of these people send home billions of US Dollars in remittances - which has helped create a niche ecosystem in Pakistan, India, Egypt and other countries - the 'Dubai money ecosystem'. This money supply is now either shut off or extremely restricted. If all these millions of foreign workers return to joblessness in Egypt, Pakistan etc there may be riots in those countries as well.
45 years of easy oil money - which began with the famous Arab Oil Embargo of 1973 - is coming to an end.
An era of "dont know how this money keeps magically falling on our heads" is coming to an end.
New uncertainties are now dawning not just upon the region but also upon millions of other people around the Islamic countries who survived on the remittances from this easy oil money.
Pretty soon their ruling "regimes" will also collapse. These are a people who are still on the learning curve when it comes to civilised behaviour. So there will be turmoil and bloodshed.
The ruling regimes have become too fat and lazy. They will not be able to sustain. The only people who can fight on and on without oil money will be the ISIS, the Al Qaeda and other such jihadis.
Inspite of the Arab Disaster aka Arab Spring of 2011, I think the troubles in the Arab countries are just beginning. Despite Iraq, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen etc we aint seen nothin' yet folks.
Ok so what will be the impact on us? Perlis is a good example.
With the GCC collapsing and hence their sponsors and money supply also drying up, the ISIS and other terrorists will relocate here and there around the Islamic countries. To save themselves they will spread out to wherever people are still stupid enough to receive them. Thus far Malaysia has proven to be quite the stupid place.
You want proof?
The psycho pro-ISIS guys ran that university in Shah Alam. (Sudah lupa ke?)
Then that Hamas rocket man was shot dead by two Israeli kidon in Ampang.
Now the cops have arrested eight pro-ISIS guys again running a madrasah in Perlis.
The cops say there are 119 foreign "hardcore Salafi students" at that madrasah.
It is not just a madrasah. It is a terror camp - where they preach terror.
So better watch out.
Better be informed too.
Dont just read Utusan or Star or Sinar. Please do read the foreign media. It is all available online. You can read Al Jazeera, Gulf News, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz, Al Ahram (Egypt), Dawn (Pakistan), The Hindu, Hindustan Times etc. Or just search You Tube.
More of such types are going to end up coming here to Malaysia.
A few years ago Pakistani labourers did not want to come to work in Malaysia because they preferred the Gulf countries where wages were better. Now we see thousands of Pakistani migrant workers entering Malaysia as labourers, grass cutters etc. Their own Pakistani rupee has crashed and other job prospects in the Gulf are now drying up. So now they are coming to Malaysia.
These folks are Muslims. So other than their manual labour, will they be bringing their politics, indoctrinations or other issues which may cost us not only our peace and security but also time, money and effort? As though the Police have nothing better to do with their time.
Its very simple. Its like this:
When we bring in Uighurs, we inherit Uighur problems.
When we bring in Moros, we inherit Moro problems.
When we bring in Rohingyas, we inherit Rohingya problems.
Even with a Standard 6 education you can understand this.
ISIS and Al Qaeda will also look to Malaysia for new recruits and for money. Here is a pop quiz folks. Who paid for the construction of that madrasah in Perlis? Was taxpayers money involved? Either directly or indirectly?
Do you seriously expect anyone to believe that the Salafis brought in money from Yemen to build a madrasah in Malaysia? I dont think they are that stupid.
Why is this relevant to us? Well there are a few reasons.
With the BN/UMNO being kicked out we are seeing the same things happening to a very large number of people who were previously feeding off the UMNO / BN gravy train. Their train has come to a sudden stop. They are finding out now (just like Dubai) that they never developed real economic skills. Minus the easy oil money, they cannot survive.
Millions of expatriate workers (Indian, Pakistani, Egyptians, Lebanese etc) work throughout the Gulf countries. Millions of these people send home billions of US Dollars in remittances - which has helped create a niche ecosystem in Pakistan, India, Egypt and other countries - the 'Dubai money ecosystem'. This money supply is now either shut off or extremely restricted. If all these millions of foreign workers return to joblessness in Egypt, Pakistan etc there may be riots in those countries as well.
An era of "dont know how this money keeps magically falling on our heads" is coming to an end.
New uncertainties are now dawning not just upon the region but also upon millions of other people around the Islamic countries who survived on the remittances from this easy oil money.
Pretty soon their ruling "regimes" will also collapse. These are a people who are still on the learning curve when it comes to civilised behaviour. So there will be turmoil and bloodshed.
The ruling regimes have become too fat and lazy. They will not be able to sustain. The only people who can fight on and on without oil money will be the ISIS, the Al Qaeda and other such jihadis.
Inspite of the Arab Disaster aka Arab Spring of 2011, I think the troubles in the Arab countries are just beginning. Despite Iraq, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen etc we aint seen nothin' yet folks.
Ok so what will be the impact on us? Perlis is a good example.
With the GCC collapsing and hence their sponsors and money supply also drying up, the ISIS and other terrorists will relocate here and there around the Islamic countries. To save themselves they will spread out to wherever people are still stupid enough to receive them. Thus far Malaysia has proven to be quite the stupid place.
You want proof?
The psycho pro-ISIS guys ran that university in Shah Alam. (Sudah lupa ke?)
Then that Hamas rocket man was shot dead by two Israeli kidon in Ampang.
Now the cops have arrested eight pro-ISIS guys again running a madrasah in Perlis.
The cops say there are 119 foreign "hardcore Salafi students" at that madrasah.
It is not just a madrasah. It is a terror camp - where they preach terror.
So better watch out.
Better be informed too.
Dont just read Utusan or Star or Sinar. Please do read the foreign media. It is all available online. You can read Al Jazeera, Gulf News, Jerusalem Post, Haaretz, Al Ahram (Egypt), Dawn (Pakistan), The Hindu, Hindustan Times etc. Or just search You Tube.
More of such types are going to end up coming here to Malaysia.
A few years ago Pakistani labourers did not want to come to work in Malaysia because they preferred the Gulf countries where wages were better. Now we see thousands of Pakistani migrant workers entering Malaysia as labourers, grass cutters etc. Their own Pakistani rupee has crashed and other job prospects in the Gulf are now drying up. So now they are coming to Malaysia.
These folks are Muslims. So other than their manual labour, will they be bringing their politics, indoctrinations or other issues which may cost us not only our peace and security but also time, money and effort? As though the Police have nothing better to do with their time.
Its very simple. Its like this:
When we bring in Hamas, we inherit Hamas problems.
When we bring in Salafis, we inherit Salafi problems. When we bring in Uighurs, we inherit Uighur problems.
When we bring in Moros, we inherit Moro problems.
When we bring in Rohingyas, we inherit Rohingya problems.
When we bring in Pattanis we inherit Pattani problems.
ISIS and Al Qaeda will also look to Malaysia for new recruits and for money. Here is a pop quiz folks. Who paid for the construction of that madrasah in Perlis? Was taxpayers money involved? Either directly or indirectly?
Do you seriously expect anyone to believe that the Salafis brought in money from Yemen to build a madrasah in Malaysia? I dont think they are that stupid.
Janganlah jadi bodoh sangat.
Ok? Can faham-faham ah?
Ok? Can faham-faham ah?
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