Umno Has To Decide What It Wants To Be

Umno and PAS already have 70% of the Malay votes combined. Pakatan Harapan has 98% of the non-Malay-non-Muslim votes. And the non-Malay-non-Muslim voters are never going to vote Umno or PAS. So therein lies the solution. Umno and PAS need to win 90% of the Malay votes and forget about the 98% non-Malay-non-Muslim votes. 

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER 

Raja Petra Kamarudin

It is now almost five months since the 9th May 2018 general election a.k.a. GE14. Umno, however, appears to still be in shell-shock and is lost as to what to do. The Umno people do not seem to realise they are now the opposition and no longer the government and, hence, should play the role of the opposition.

Many in Umno are still hoping to make a deal with Pakatan Harapan, or at the very least with some parties in Pakatan Harapan, and return to the corridors of power through the backdoor. These people feel with the 54 seats Umno won in GE14, now whittled down to less than 40, and probably in due time to less than 30, they are still a force to be reckoned with.

What these people do not understand is that if Pakatan Harapan (or PPBM and/or PKR) accept Umno as either a coalition partner or as a unity-government partner, Pakatan Harapan would lose the DAP support plus the support of Sabah and Sarawak. Hence it would be one step forward but two steps backwards.

Umno does not know how to be the opposition and wants to be back in the government

Some in Umno feel the only thing they need to do is to throw Najib Tun Razak under the bus and that will solve everything. It is Najib that the voters do not want, not Umno, these people think. That is like saying all Iran has to do is to remove Khomeini and the United States will pour trillions into Iran to help boost its economy.

The problem is not Khomeini. The problem is not even Iran itself, with or without Khomeini. The problem is what Iran represents to Israel, meaning a threat. The US needs to protect Israel and a powerful Iran is not in the interest of Israel. Hence Iran needs to be weakened and if possible destroyed.

So, the Umno issue is not about Najib. It is not even about Umno itself. It is about what Umno stands for — which is Ketuanan Melayu or Malay Supremacy or Malay Nationalism, etc. Then there is always a danger that Umno may go to bed with PAS (as it is they are already ‘dating’). And PAS is worse than Umno because that party stands for Ketuanan Islam or Islamic Supremacy.

Umno and PAS combined have 70% of the Malay votes

An Umno combined or merged with PAS would mean Ketuanan Melayu-Islam would be the new rallying call. And that would spell disaster for the non-Malays-non-Muslims and Malay liberals (or super-liberals, as what Anwar Ibrahim said).

So Umno needs to be destroyed and PAS needs to be isolated. And at all costs Umno and PAS must not merge because combined they control 70% of the Malay votes. But the non-Malays-non-Muslims and Malay liberals need not worry about that because Umno and PAS will never ‘marry’ come what may.

Ironically, both Umno and PAS would rather go to bed with Pakatan Harapan than with each other. All Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has to do is to give, or give back, Kelantan and Terengganu the 5% oil royalty that they want and PAS will be happy enough to remain solo.

PAS is very happy just being in Terengganu and Kelantan

PAS does not want to be in Putrajaya or be part of the federal government. They do not even want to get married to Umno. They just want to be left alone to run Kelantan and Terengganu and at the same time get the 5% oil royalty that constitutionally and legally belongs to them.

Umno, however, or at least many of the Umno leaders/members, want to be back in the federal government. But they are not quite sure how to make that happen.

Should Umno become more liberal? Should Umno become more Malay-centric? Should Umno turn multi-racial? Should Umno merge with PPBM? Should Umno join Pakatan Harapan? Should Umno form a coalition with PAS? Should Umno reform and all the old guards relinquish control of the party and be replaced with the younger generation? Should Umno just close down?

What should Umno do? How to run with the hare and at the same time hunt with the hounds? More importantly, how to restore Umno to the position of top dog of Malaysian politics? That is the dilemma facing Umno today.

The Umno party president does not seem to know what to do

Umno is hoping Mahathir and Anwar will soon start fighting and that the fight will be fierce. Then one of the two (or both) might need Umno’s help to stay alive. Umno will then either choose Mahathir or Anwar to ally with, depending on which of the two is going to be the government.

And that will how Umno will get to come back into the corridors of power. Ambil kesempatan dalam kesempitan.

But what if Mahathir and Anwar do not fight? What if they remain friends? Well, then Umno has no future any longer. Many may leave Umno and cross over to Pakatan Harapan. Umno can stay as the opposition but the Umno leaders and members want to be in the government. In time, Umno will be ‘emptied’ and will die a natural death.

Power is aphrodisiac and Umno without power is no Tongkat Ali. Umno’s future lies in whether it will remain an opposition party. Umno is 72 years old and at that age you are too old to change. Umno can never be an opposition party because it was not born as one in 1946 and was never trained to be one in its 72 years of existence.

If Umno does not get back into power it is going to die. But the good news is, Umno’s misfortune will be to the benefit of PAS. What Umno loses PAS will gain.

The non-Malays will never vote Umno or PAS in a million years

It is time the Malays-Muslims realise they need one voice. The non-Malays-non-Muslims will never vote Umno or PAS in a million years. So Umno and PAS might as well forget about the non-Malays-non-Muslims and, as Mahathir said in 2013, just focus on the Malays-Muslims.

Umno and PAS already have 70% of the Malay votes combined. Pakatan Harapan has 98% of the non-Malay-non-Muslim votes. And the non-Malay-non-Muslim voters are never going to vote Umno or PAS. So therein lies the solution. Umno and PAS need to win 90% of the Malay votes and forget about the 98% non-Malay-non-Muslim votes.

Malaysian politics will be divided along racial-religious lines with the Malays-Muslims on one side and the non-Malays-non-Muslims on the other side. But that cannot be avoided if Umno and PAS want to get back control from the Chinese-controlled Pakatan Harapan. Even Mahathir in 2013 pointed this out in his criticism of Najib.

BN and PAS combined won more votes than Pakatan Harapan in GE14