Will Isa and PAS candidate lose their deposits in the PD polls?

MP SPEAKS | The polling survey by Institute Darul Ehsan (IDE) on the eve of the by-election tomorrow is most interesting – not whether Anwar Ibrahim is on track to defeat his six opponents or Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan will sink to the bottom, but that the PAS candidate Mohd Nazari Mokhtar would only maintain the 11 percent of the votes the party obtained in the 14th general election (GE14), while former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar Mohd Isa Samad would only garner 10 percent of the votes cast.

If Isa had not contested, and the bulk of the majority of Umno votes had gone to the PAS candidate as conspired by Umno and PAS leaders, then the PAS candidate would be able to retain his deposit in the by-election as PAS secured just short of 11 percent of the votes cast in GE14 (short of the 12.5 percent of the votes cast necessary to retain his deposit).

Many expect Isa to do better than the PAS candidate in the by-election but the IDE survey shows otherwise, that PAS would maintain its 11 percent of the votes cast previously, while Isa would get only 10 percent of the votes cast, both forfeiting their deposits in being unable to get at least 12.5 percent of the votes cast.

This will have several implications.

Firstly, the continued marginalisation of Umno – with six Umno MPs having resigned from the party since GE14, the sixth being the Labuan MP, Rozman Isli, joining others such as Mustapha Mohamad and Anifah Aman – with more Umno MPs set to leave Umno.

There is, in fact, a video skit making the rounds on the social media about more Umno MPs leaving the sinking ship.

Only time will tell whether this crisis will lead to a more responsible Umno or an even more desperate, bigotted, extremist and intolerant party as reflected by a recent Facebook posting by the Umno secretary-general urging Umno members never to “sell or pawn” the struggle, let alone retreat or surrender.

Secondly, the continued shrinkage of PAS from a national party with elected representatives throughout Peninsular Malaysia to a regional party ensconced in the Malay states in the East Coast and Kedah and Perlis, undoing all the successes and achievements in the reach-out efforts to all races, religions and regions undertaken by the two previous PAS presidents, Fadzil Noor (photo) and Yusuf Rawa and the previous PAS spiritual leader, Tuan Guru Nik Abdul Aziz bin Nik Mat, for over two decades.

PAS won the least parliamentary seats in GE14 since the political tsunami of the 12th general election, and won even less seats than in GE10, under the leadership of Fadzil Noor, when PAS won 27 parliamentary seats.

The IDE survey forecasting that PAS “is not expected to gain more than one percent of non-Malay votes” is in sharp contrast to the claim by PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang that PAS will get the support of non-Muslim voters in the by-election.

Thirdly, extremists, whether in Umno or PAS, are fighting a losing battle in plural Malaysia if they resort to the toxic and vicious politics of race, religion, hate, fear and lies – especially in this era of information.

During my recent visit to Canberra, I recevied a note from John Funston of the Department of Political and Social Change, College of Asia and the Pacific of Australian National University (ANU), whose preliminary studies showed that Malay support for Umno in Peninsular Malaysia in GE14 was only about five percent higher than the support for Pakatan Harapan, and not 15 percent as had earlier been estimated by Merdeka Center.

But many of the 2.3 million Malay voters who voted for Umno and two million voters who voted for PAS were misled because I am sure they did not support the 1MDB corruption and money-laundering scandal, and would be horrified if they knew they were voting for a global kleptocracy or an Islamic kleptocracy.

Pakatan Harapan wants to transform Malaysia from a global kleptoctracy to a leading nation of integrity, a goal which I am confident would have the support of those who had been misled to vote for Umno and PAS in GE14.

As tomorrow is polling day, I want to reinforce my call on the voters of Port Dickson to be conscious of history-in-the-making in the great current effort to build a New Malaysia, and why it is important to have a great victory in the by-election for two reasons:

(i) A resounding mandate for Anwar Ibrahim to be the MP for Port Dickson and the eighth prime minister-designate; and

(2) Provide a great support for building a New Malaysia.

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LIM KIT SIANG, of DAP, is the MP for Iskandar Puteri. - Mkini