Amanah-Umno spat not grounded in reality

 

ANALYSIS | Umno and Amanah's spat over seats in Malacca, Johor, and Kedah is not an argument grounded in reality.

To understand why, one must simply look at the election results in all three states.

In the southern states of Malacca and Johor, it is true that BN had won state elections in 2021 and 2022 with supermajorities.

But the reality is that those wins are because of flaws in the first-past-the-post system, which allows candidates to win despite not receiving more than 50 percent of votes in multi-cornered fights, accentuated by low-turnout rates.

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In Malacca, despite winning 75 percent of seats, BN only received 38.4 percent of votes, while Pakatan Harapan, which received 35.8 percent of votes, only won 17.8 percent of seats.

In fact, of the 21 seats that BN won, only six were won with more than 50 percent of the vote, while eight were won with around 40 percent of the votes or less.

Likewise, in Johor, BN won 71 percent of seats with just 43.1 percent of votes.

Of the 40 seats it won, 18 were won with less than 50 percent of the votes, including 11, which it won with less than 40 percent of the votes.

In both elections, turnout was below 70 percent. When voter turnout increased for the November 2022 general election, the results were not so favourable for BN.

In Malacca, BN failed to win any parliamentary seats, while Harapan and Perikatan Nasional won three each. In Johor, BN's "dominance" during the state election was reversed, when it won nine parliamentary seats, which is 36 percent of federal seats in the state.

Incumbency formula

In the 2023 Kedah election, despite BN and Harapan teaming up against PN in mostly straight fights, both Umno and Amanah were completely wiped out, with Harapan allies PKR and DAP managing to scrape one seat each.

The realities of why BN won supermajorities in Malacca and Johor make the current incumbency formula practised by the Madani pact, where parties contest in seats they won, untenable.

And while Amanah may be the only party kicking up a fuss now, it is likely that other Harapan allies, PKR in particular, may want Umno to give up some seats as well.

Should negotiations fail, and Amanah and Harapan decide to clash against both Umno and PN, there is no guarantee of success either.

In fact, for Amanah, such a gambit may end poorly as both Malay and non-Malay support for Harapan is shaky.

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Amanah’s gambit

Speaking to Malaysiakini, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said Amanah in Harapan is the mirror image of MCA and MIC in BN, in that because Harapan and BN are cooperating, they have fewer seats to contest, albeit Amanah is still better off than the two non-Malay BN parties.

He said, however, that there is a risk that Amanah will be made to give up seats to Umno, and that it is unlikely that Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim will stand up for the Islam-based party.

Wong Chin Huat

"So, Amanah asking for a free-for-all is both a preparation to fight and a bargaining strategy," he said.

For International Islamic University Malaysia political science associate professor Syaza Syukri, Amanah's gambit is a very risky move.

"We understand that Amanah wants to assert itself. But if it ends up in a three-cornered fight, not only would it affect the outcome, but also trust between the coalitions.

"But I don’t think Amanah would necessarily lose if we compare it with the 2022 parliamentary election," she said.

Which pattern?

Both Wong and Syaza opined that Umno should not rely too much on its performance during the Malacca and Johor state elections.

Wong said the Parliament election results clearly shattered BN's illusions that it was gaining momentum after the two southern state elections.

"Would the next state elections follow the pattern of the last state elections or that of GE15? Maybe Umno shouldn’t take things for granted," Wong added.

Syaza said there is a chance that Umno may be able to replicate its success if Malacca and Johor continued to hold state elections separately from federal polls.

"But at the end of the day, if this is a Harapan-BN coalition, BN might win big because of that. But if BN works against Harapan, I don’t think it’s going to be smooth for BN," she said. - Mkini