CHECKMATES IN THE DESERT: SOMALILAND

There is a nine minute video here that wraps everything up neatly. Do watch the video. First some brief history.

There is a new country in the world - it is called Somaliland. It was / is a part of Somalia. However  thirteen days ago on 26th December 2025, Israel and the United Arab Emirates have both recognised the sovereign state of Somaliland.

Somaliland did not pop out of thin air. Their "independence" goes back to 1991 when Somalia as a whole had already collapsed as a viable country. Somaliland declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of Somalia’s central government; it was formerly the British Somaliland Protectorate. Somalia was Italian Somaliland before unity in 1960. 

Unlike Mogadishu (the capital of Somalia) "independent" Somaliland  has had a centralised administration, functioning local councils and local governments as well as regular elections and a president Abdirrahman Mohamed Abdullahi who won the elections in 2024.  Since 1991 they have operated as a self-declared independent state with its own government, constitution, currency, armed forces and institutions.  

The rest of Somalia is cursed by clan and tribal identity. If you read Ayaan Hirsi Ali's book 'Infidel' she gives a first hand description of the really messed up 'clan' system that dominates everything in Somalia.  In some contrast Somaliland is dominated by the Isaaq clan. Lesser clans means lesser fighting. They have avoided prolonged civil war and persistent insurgencies (e.g., Al-Shabaab) that have affected much of Somalia. 

And so shall Somaliland be saved. Praise Be. 

Here is that nine minute video:

Ok here is the checkmate - flying time from Berbera to Sana'a in Yemen is 20 minutes.  See the screen grab below. The Israeli Air Force is already on the ground in Berbera. 

 

The most interesting feature in Berbera is this man made 'anchorage' below. That channel is about 100 meters wide (red circle) and can easily be protected by anti-submarine nets and anti diver measures. This naval base is within walking distance of the nearby military airbase which now houses the Israeli Air Force in Berbera.   

 

The anchorage is over one kilometer long and can easily fit Saar Class frigates of the Israeli Navy as well as their submarines. This is possibly the first Israeli military base outside Israel.  The Houthis are going to get their goose cooked. 

Overnite and almost instantly the Isarelis  control the Bab el Mandeb - that narrow straits which is itself the entrance to the Red Sea. 12% of the world's oil and 14% of global trade passes through the Red Sea. 

The Houthis used their rockets and speed boats to keep the Bab el Mandeb closed to world trade. If oil prices and the prices of goods at the supermarket went up over the past two years, the Houthis did that. The Israelis on the other hand want to keep the Bab el Mnadeb open for world trade. 

So who do you think will win in the end? 

 The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.