The boon and bane of Johor UMNO/BN going solo, break away from unity gov’t in upcoming state polls

 

THAT Johor UMNO shall contest in all 56 seats in the state election that must be held on or before Feb 25, 2027 is a clear indicator that the upcoming state and national polls will probably feature a three-cornered contest between Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).

This follows the revelation by Johor BN/UMNO chairman and Menteri Besar (MB) Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi who claimed that UMNO’s central leadership has consented to the move.

“For Johor UMNO and BN, the stance to contest in 56 state assembly seats is a clear offer to Johorians that we’re ready to continue to form a government that is stable, strong and fully serves the development of the state and the well-being of Johorians,” the Machap state assemblyman told Johorians yesterday (May 16).

As it is, Johor has traditionally been hailed as a UMNO stronghold which explains BN/UMNO sweeping 40 out of 56 state assembly seats in the March 12, 2022 state election with PH having suffered heavy losses by winning only 12 seats while PN won just three seats (MUDA won one seat in its election debut)

But such achievement may not necessarily translate into a landslide victory at the national poll level as evident by UMNO having fared miserably in the Nov 19, 2022 15th General Election (GE15) by winning only 26 of the 191 parliamentary seats it contested (BN won 30 overall)

This was primarily driven by the broader mass exodus of Malay voters to the opposition PN coalition amid an addition of over six million new voters, courtesy of automatic voter registration and Undi18 which diluted UMNO’s traditional grassroots advantage.

Not only that many younger and first-time voters favoured opposition coalitions over the establishment party but heavy multi-cornered contests in Malay-majority seats – instead of dividing the opposition – split votes and hurt UMNO, thus enabling PN to sweep up the disgruntled Malay vote while PH retained the non-Malay vote.

UMNO shouldn’t claim all credit

Johor PH in a reaction claimed that the coalition has anticipated a UMNO breakaway but insisted that Johor BN needs to be honest with Johorians that the stability and development of the state today did not happen alone “but rather through the close cooperation of the unity government at the Federal level”.

“Among the clear examples are efforts to address congestion at the Sultan Iskandar Building (CIQ) and the Johor Causeway which involve the collaboration of various Federal level ministries and the state government,” it reminded in a statement.

The statement was endorsed by Johor Amanah/PH chairman and Sri Gading MP Aminolhuda Hassan; Johor PKR chairwoman and Sekijang MP Datuk Seri Dr Zaliha Mustafa; and Johor DAP chairwoman and Kulai MP Teo Nie Ching.

Additionally, the ETS service project to Johor Bahru, various strategic investments brought in through MITI and Federal agencies, the development of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) as well as improvements to public facilities and state infrastructure also stemmed from close collaboration between the State and Federal governments.

Thus, when the Johor BN decided to contest solo, Johorians have the right to question whether BN actually only wants to take  political benefits from the results of the unity government’s collaboration at the Federal level but at the same time choose to distance itself when the election season arrives.

In this regard, the PH Convention slated for today (May 17) must be an important arena to discuss preparations for a three-cornered clash, according to PKR’s Pulai MP Suhaizan Kaiat.

“State representatives and PH’s top leadership must provide a clearer direction and stance regarding the strategy for the upcoming state and national polls so that the entire machinery and supporters understand the form of political cooperation that to be expected,” he penned in a FB post.

Apart from the BN announcement that it’ll contest in all 56 Johor state constituencies, the recent vote of no confidence against the Negeri Sembilan MB is also an indicator that the political dynamics leading up to GE16 are increasingly turning towards multi-cornered contests.

The big question that needs to be answered is how the unity government can continue to function stably when the component parties are starting to move as open competitors at the state and national levels. –  Focus Malaysia