Anwar's biggest challenge lies with the voters of Port Dickson

ANALYSIS | Pakatan Harapan candidate Anwar Ibrahim has set his target in securing a respectable majority vote in the Port Dickson by-election in his return to politics as prime minister-in-waiting.

While not giving an exact figure, it was reported that he wanted his majority votes to be as big as former MP Danyal Balagopal Abdullah's 17,710 votes.

“I have been chosen by friends in Pakatan Harapan to be Dr Mahathir (Mohamad)’s successor as prime minister. I want my mandate to be strong," Anwar was quoted by The Malaysian Insight as saying at a ceramah on Oct 1.

"I will be embarrassed if I only secure a majority of 220 votes," he added.

To get a mandate like the former MP, Anwar will have to push for a voter turnout rate of above 80 percent.

In its first by-election in June 2000, Port Dickson (known as Teluk Kemang then) only secured a 66.14 percent voter turnout.

In this analysis, Malaysiakini will explore the challenges faced by Anwar's campaign team to persuade the voters to come back to cast their ballots.

According to the local representatives and party workers, the percentage of outstation voters in five state seats under Port Dickson range between 20 percent and 50 percent. These are Chuah (50 percent), Linggi (40 percent), Bagan Pinang (20 percent), Lukut (28 percent) and Sri Tanjung (25 percent).

The percentage of outstation voters are linked to the local economy.

Port Dickson's beach became a popular holiday destination for local tourists in the 1990s and also attracted many Singaporeans who invested in holiday homes.

The construction of hotels and resorts were put on hold after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and some of these projects have been abandoned until today.

While tourism has struggled to return to its good old days, some spots located within the Bagan Pinang and Sri Tanjung state seats are still able to support tourism related industries.

Apart from that, there are also palm oil estates, three oil refineries and power plants in the constituency.

Push for 70 percent voter turnout

Chuah, the northeast state seat of Port Dickson, holds the record with the highest percentage of outstation voters.

According to its assemblyperson Yek Diew Ching, the impact of the economic slump that hit Chuah - which housed the country's biggest pig farming industry in 1999 - due to the fatal Nipah virus, is felt until now.

"The people move out for better job opportunities. They went to Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Johor Bahru. The younger generation found employment at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) which is 20 minutes away," he said.

Yek noted that the three by-elections after May 9 general election have recorded a voter turnout of below 50 percent, and this has posed a challenge for the team on the ground.

"Anwar's main problem lies with the voter turnout, not the contenders themselves," he told Malaysiakini.

Besides making an appeal via social media, Yek said Harapan also adopted "Ketua 50" (Leader of 50) approach where all assigned party members will be in charge of 50 people, who will be responsible for, among others, urging outstation voters to come back.

He admitted that this approach is similar to Umno's "Ketua 10" (Leader of 10), where a member is assigned to take care of 10 people in their neighbourhood, with one of the aims being to ensure they vote for BN during general elections.

"We need to put in a lot of effort, we hope to push the percentage of voter turnout from 60 percent to 70 percent."

While they work hard to get voters back, Yek also learned that some people have already planned their holidays.

"I was told that 10 buses of devotees will depart on the polling day to participate in the Nine Emperor Gods Festival in Thailand. I don't think they will cast their ballots," he said.

Meanwhile, Sri Tanjung assemblyperson M Ravi said they will do it by way of their way "appealing" to the voters to return.

"Our team visits house to house and get the details of the outstation voters. We call or WhatsApp them.

"We appeal for their return as this is not any ordinary election. Do not think that Anwar will surely win. We are not just voting for Anwar, we are voting for the future prime minister," he said.

However, Ravi noted that it is challenging as there is no long vacation around the Oct 13 polling day.

Similarly, Harapan's campaign teams in Bagan Pinang also do house-to-house visits to check out the outstation voters and contact them one by one.

"We have 20 percent outstation voters and we are in contact with them," said Md Nordin Ismail, who is in charge of the election campaign in the Bagan Pinang state seat.

"Eighty percent of the outstation voters contacted by us said they will come home to vote but the rest said they are unable to do so," he added.

Huge majority not realistic for Anwar

In Lukut, its state assemblyperson Choo Ken Hwa and his team has been trying to "uplift" the importance of this by-election, just like the GE14.

"We explain the importance of this battle. You are casting a ballot for the future of Port Dickson, it is like we are voting for new a government. The world is also observing the by-election," Choo said.

According to Choo (photo), DAP has targeted a 60 percent voter turnout from the Lukut constituency.

While Anwar's machinery remained confident and hopeful, another party source said that it is not realistic for Anwar to expect to secure a huge majority like Danyal.

Concurring, another source said the PKR president-elect will be lucky if he wins by a majority og 10,000 votes in the seven-cornered fight.

In a Vox Pop carried out by Malaysiakini, only voters whose children are currently working in Kuala Lumpur have promised to come back, while those who are working and studying abroad have no such plans.

Chow Ket Mee, a 67-year-old Harapan supporter in Kampung Jimah, said three of her children who are working in the Klang Valley have promised they would come.

"They will return on Friday night and vote on Saturday. In fact, they come home every week as it is not far for them," she added.

Shee Boon Than, a 47-year-old sundry shop owner in Lukut, said his two sons who are studying information engineering in Japan and electrical engineering in Taiwan respectively, are unable to come home.

"They are observing the by-election, but they will not come home. The flight tickets are expensive. I feel that we all should come out and vote, we do wish to get an outstanding lawmaker," he added.

Shee, however, remained sceptical about Anwar's plan to develop Port Dickson due to government debts and the slow economy.

Similarly, Chia Fook Sang, a 44-year-old Chinese traditional medicine shop operator, said his two children, who are studying Chinese medicine in Guangzhou, China, will not come back.

"They came home during 14th general election and spent approximately RM1,000 for the flight tickets. They applied for a week’s leave from their university then.

"The new semester started last month, so it is not convenient for them to apply for leave again," he added.

Meanwhile, businessperson Haidah Ayuna said many of her family members and friends will not return.

"My elder sister works in Penang. My family members and friends are everywhere, some in Perak, Johor, and others went abroad. They work very far away, it is not possible for them to come back," she said.

Haidah added that the mood of the locals who were excited about the change of government has subsided.

Nur Fatimah, 48, said her daughter who is working in Skudai, may come back.

"But the problem is, it is hard for her to get leave," she lamented.

While it is not certain how the outstation voters may respond to Anwar's call, these staunch Harapan supporters are not his only answer.

What Harapan needs to do is to win over the Malay voters in the absence of BN and Umno. They are boycotting the by-election.

It has been observed that Harapan's machinery is particularly focusing on Linggi and Bagan Pinang. Both are state seats held by Umno lawmakers.

Several sources from Harapan and BN said during GE14, the ruling coalition only secured approximately 30 percent of Malay support, while 20 percent of the Malay votes went to PAS.

If Anwar is able to influence the Malays, then there is a chance for him to take Port Dickson with a big majority. - Mkini