ANALYSIS | The delayed 2025 Umno general assembly concluded on Saturday with the party seemingly in good spirits, thumping its chest as the number one champion of Malay rights.
However, beneath the fiery speeches and bravado, there are clear signals that the future is uncertain for Umno, and the party is worried.
Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan was the first to divulge this fear.
In his speech officiating the Umno wings assemblies, Mohamad put up a brave front that the party is in government to ensure that the party’s red lines on bumiputera rights and Islam are not crossed, and to protect these interests.
However, in the same speech, he admitted that ethnonationalism is no longer sufficient for Umno to get support, and that voters want something more.
He also said the party is facing a drastic decline in hardcore supporters.
This was confirmed with data on Friday, when Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said, despite having over 622,000 registered members in Sabah, only about 20 percent voted for the party in the Nov 29 state election.
Observers and analysts have presented two ways forward for Umno.
Sunway University political analyst Wong Chin Huat has said on several occasions that Umno would benefit from staying with Pakatan Harapan to get non-Malay votes in the next election, as it did during the six-state elections in 2023.
However, others, including proponents within Umno itself, such as youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh, believe that the future lies with PAS, in a revival of Muafakat Nasional.
Despite having rejected an MN revival and leaving the government now, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi on Saturday revealed that even he is uncertain about which route is best for the party’s survivability.
His “grand collaboration” proposal is indicative of that.
‘Grand survivability’ plan
On the surface, it's to foster cooperation between the Malay and Muslim parties, while keeping Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in power.
But it also betrays a lack of confidence in the Madani coalition’s chances in the next general election - amid continued disenchantment among Harapan supporters for the pact.
The “grand collaboration” is thus likely aimed at fostering enough goodwill with PAS, and even Bersatu, to ensure that if things don’t work out with Madani at the next polls, Umno can join a Perikatan Nasional government.
International Islamic University Malaysia political science associate professor Syaza Syukri concurred, saying that Zahid’s proposal was paradoxical.
“So what exactly does Umno want? I think (the grand collaboration) is truly Zahid’s effort to keep the door open with both Harapan and PN, and when the GE16 result comes in, they can work with either.
“It also shows that Umno understands their days of being the hegemon are behind them and they need to work with others, either DAP or PAS,” she told Malaysiakini.
Wong expressed a similar view, saying that Umno has seemingly abandoned its ambition to be the largest Malay party and is prepared to play second fiddle to PAS.
“The catch here is PAS won't allow Umno - and Bersatu - to survive after that, much like what Umno did to PAS - and its splinter Berjasa - at the end of their 1972-1977 cohabitation,” he said.
“If Zahid's gesture is to placate Akmal, then Akmal has succeeded in getting Umno to signal its own suicide in the name of Malay unity,” he added.
He also said that Zahid’s plan to “main dua kolam” (play both sides) showed the party is learning the wrong lesson from the Sabah election, which he said Umno lost because it fought both Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and Warisan.
Cheap theatrics at AGM
But the motivations for such shifts are simple. Wong put it plainly that Umno’s survivability depends on its ability to stay in government.
“Umno was not designed to stay in opposition, like T20 kids not accustomed to taking the bus. It would lose members and votes if it were permanent in opposition,” he said.
The political scientist cautioned that if Anwar allows Umno to proceed with its plans, he would be “the greatest fool in Malaysian politics”.
However, Pacific Research Center Malaysia principal adviser Oh Ei Sun said whatever Umno decides on ultimately, it would be of no surprise to voters who have come to expect post-election coalitions and that there are no more “strange bedfellows” in politics.
Commenting on the AGM, both Syaza and Wong said the assembly was filled with cheap theatrics.
Syaza said it showed that Umno was being reactive instead of coming up with fresh ideas.
“Because support is going down, they decide to double down on the Malay narrative, kind of like the keris brandishing at the beginning of shifting votes by non-Malays.
“It’s unfortunate because they could be more creative in coming up with new, fresh ideas as a means to regain trust,” she said. - Mkini
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