Snap Polls in Malaysia? There is the "Iranian ballistic missiles" question.

 DAP holding special congress on July 12,  delegates will vote whether party leaders should resign all govt positions ministerial posts, state EXCO roles, and positions in GLCs 

The following is adapted and edited from CNA here:    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/graft-crisis-pkr-party-fractures-ph-coalition-jitters-5976646

I have some comments after this:

• snap poll rumbles grow, internal strife, widening anti-graft controversy​
• multiple challenges may force early elections
• nearly two years ahead of Feb 2028 deadline
• secret meeting between UMNO and opposition
• long-time ally DAP rethinking their ties
• allegations besieging MACC chief

• developments occurring almost concurrently 
• now pose most serious threat to tenure 
• pressure on PH coalition may force early elections
• nearly two years ahead of Feb 2028 deadline
• pressure building, perfect storm brewing

• Of particular concern little-known meeting in Bangkok in mid-Dec
• between leaders from UMNO, Bersatu, PAS sources told CNA
• UMNO president attended with party sec-gen 
• Bersatu represented by Hamzah Zainudin
• PAS by secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan
• 'PH' not informed of Bangkok meeting
• according to anonymous sources in admin
• only acknowledged after confronted by Saifuddin Nasution 
• who had been alerted by Thai intelligence, sources told CNA.
• "there are trust issues with UMNO now."

PRESSURE MOUNTS FOR EARLY POLLS

• pressure building within DAP to hold 16th GE together with three state polls 
• next GE scheduled by Feb 17, 2028
• Early GE near certainty. 
• Sabah/S'wak want it, and so does DAP
• DAP's wipeout 8 seats in Sabah exposed Chinese disenchantment  
• loss of DAP credibility forcing reckoning, DAP leaders acknowledge
• DAP now sees PKR as weak ally 
• Many leaders want to leave PH and go solo said DAP's Ronnie Liu
• DAP party leadership faces heavy pressure from disenchanted "Chinese" 
• pressure prompted Anthony Loke to demand to align federal & state polls
• and whether to maintain the current PH coalition framework.
• whether we want to continue cooperation model for next GE Loke said

DAP holding special congress on Jul 12,  delegates will vote whether party leaders should resign all govt positions ministerial posts, state EXCO roles, and positions in GLCs

• MACC WOES
• also facing pressure from widespread misconduct at MACC
• casting doubt on tackling graft
• key issue is scandal engulfing the chief 
• allegations, slow progress of reforms, pushed DAP to rethink ties
• DAP called for MACC chief immediate replacement and RCI 
• DAP officials now thinking to advance July congress if RCI rejected 
• party to evaluate position in coalitions when time comes for elections

• PKR FACTIONAL WAR
• deepening fissures in PKR.
• Rafizi Ramli leads growing faction of dissenters
• Rafizi resigned from Cabinet 
• claims MACC has been weaponised 
• His open criticism has further split PKR
• Rafizi's faction includes eight MPs (out of 31 PKR MPs) 
• delicate political arithmetic holding coalition together 

• PH holds 79 seats in 222-member Parliament
• 33 seats away from simple majority
• relies on UMNO, Sabah, Sarawak coalitions to govern
• This is why Bangkok meeting potential challenge, said insiders
• Bersatu had 19 seats
• PAS holds 43 parliamentary seats, UMNO 26. 
• Together, would command 88 MPs - larger than PH
• Whether Sabah and Sarawak switch sides remains unclear

BREATHING SPACE, FOR NOW

• early polls remain very real prospect, analysts said
• Parliament will automatically dissolve on Dec 19 2027 
• Melaka, Swak', Johor polls in Dec 2026, Feb 2027, April 2027 respectively.
• widespread speculation UMNO in Melaka, Johor suspend assemblies in Sept
• stable economy, strengthening currency, buoyant stock market 
• EPF 6.15 % dividend for 2025, paying RM79.6 b to contributors.
• we will have hung Parliament 
• current report card for PH very weak 
• failure to deliver on election promises
• Coalition partners threatening to leave 

My Comments:

The easy ones first. 

Sabah and Swak will not switch to a coalition with PAS. If Abang Johari does that the Dayak Christian majority in Sarawak will revolt. Abang Johari will lose the Dayak vote. 

The only way around this problem is if Pas can learn to speak Dayak. That is not going to happen anytime soon.

Secret meeting between UMNO and opposition in Bangkok.   Here is an AI generated picture. What do you think? 

There are only two things that are relevant in this article by CNA.

Point No. 1 - The DAP is going to get their butts kicked out by the Chinese voters. Sabah 8-0 is going to be repeated on a grand scale. 

Economy improving, stock market moving, EPF over 6% dividend does not mean a thing outside the Klang Valley. The bulk of the country's voters are in Johor, Perak, Sabah, Swak, Kedah etc- outside the Klang Valley. 

Go and ask them how are they going to vote. 

Read this article again. It is disaster news for the ruling jokers. 

In 2022 they won only 79 Parliamentary seats - 33 seats far away from a simple majority.  In 2022 the DAP won 40 seats, the PKR 31 won seats. Does anyone seriously believe that in the next GE the DAP can retain all those 40 seats? Or that PKR can retain all those 31 seats?  That is not going to happen. 

Lets say between the DAP and PKR they lose just 10 seats - that means they can only secure 69 Parliamentary seats in total. That means they will be 43 seats further away from a simple majority (of 112 Parliamentary seats). 

I dont think they are going to form the next gomen.

Then there is the "Iranian ballistic missiles" question. Meaning it is very explosive. Where exactly is that fellow going to run? Which Parliamentary seat? The ginger farmers will kick him out. There are no more safe seats.

Is Theresa Kok going to give up her seat? Even if she does, there is no guarantee the Chinese voters will not kick him out.  The daughter's political future is also over. There is no seat where she can win.  So how?

So you can talk, talk, talk. You can bla, bla, bla.   Then suddenly kaboom - the fellow loses his seat. Malu lah. It is not an impossibility. So the DAP better think carefully. Your ayam is not going to make it.

Point No 2 - the fate of the ordinary Malaysian is not improving much. They still have not asked me, 'Mr Syed Akbar what can we do for you?'.

None of the political parties seem to care about the fate of the ordinary Malaysian. Today I got RM150 deposited in my bank account by the gomen. Thank you for giving me back some of my money. That is taxpayer's money. My money. 

Then I got another RM400 in my 'Sara' account for buying groceries. Again thank you for giving me back some of my money. Taxpayer's money.

But how far can that go? And how does that help the gomen's huge debt deficit? The more free money you dish out the higher will be the gomen debt.

What does this mean? It means the more time passes, the situation is going to get worse for the ruling coalition. The standard of living and the quality of life of the ordinary people are not improving that much. The longer you wait the higher the risk.

Then there are other unexpected  "Iranian ballistic missiles" that can explode from out of nowhere. Who knows what other corruption scandals are going to pop up. Who knows what Rafizi or Chegubard may expose over the next few weeks or months. Or what Bloomberg, CNA or the Wall Street Journal might suddenly expose. 

So time is not on their side. 

Time is their enemy. 

The more time passes the higher the risk for them.

And the DAP must remember this - if you hang on to a sinking boat - it means you will be pulled down also.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.