‘AS LONG AS MUSA AMAN & SALLEH KERUAK ARE UNITED, SHAFIE CANNOT TAKE SABAH’: REALITY CHECK FOR WARISAN?

FAILURE to unite, weak local leaders and unknown candidates are among the reasons Parti Warisan and other opposition parties will have a tough time bringing down Sabah Barisan Nasional in the 14th general election.

However, although they may not take over the Sabah government, the opposition could likely gain more parliamentary seats, said Dr Arnold Puyok of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas).

Another political scientist Dr Zaini Othman said BN’s track record in each constituency and the stature of its elected representatives will also influence how Sabahans will vote.

Muslim Bumiputeras, such as the Bajau, Malay and Kedayan sub-ethnic groups, make up about 52% of voters in Sabah. This is followed by the Kadazan Dusun Murut community who comprise 28% of voters and Chinese voters at 13%.

In a Merdeka Centre survey last year, Umno had the highest overall favourability ratingamong all political parties with 50% of those polled saw it positively compared with 42% who saw it negatively.

Although Warisan, formed by former Sabah Umno leader Mohd Shafie Apdal, has some influence among Muslim Bumiputeras, it is not enough to threaten Musa Aman and Salleh Said Keruak.

“Among Muslim Bumiputeras, as long as Musa and Salleh are united, Shafie cannot break Umno,”  said Puyok, who is a senior lecturer of politics and government studies.

In the Merdeka Centre survey, Warisan received a negative rating among 40% of those polled while 28% viewed it positively.

Sabah Umno currently holds 31 out of 60 seats in the Sabah assembly, making them the largest party in the North Borneo region. Overall, Sabah BN holds 49 seats in the Sabah assembly, giving it a two-thirds majority.

Although support for Sabah Umno is solid, said Puyok, the same cannot be said for its partners, such as Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS), United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (Upko) and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

In GE13, support from the non-Muslim Bumiputeras, such as the Kadazan Dusun Murut shifted from BN to parties in the former Pakatan Rakyat opposition alliance made up of PKR and DAP.

Upko lost the Penampang parliamentary seat, known as the cultural heartland of the Kadazan Dusun, at GE13.

PBS lost six state seats to PKR and DAP, while Upko lost one.

Zaini of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) said despite the GE13 trend among non-Muslim Bumiputeras, how the community will vote could still hinge on the candidate.

“This time, amid the euphoria of good governance, the candidate’s personal posture, track record and local constituencies sentiments will play a major factor,” said Zaini, a senior lecturer in UMS.

“The good governance sentiment seems to be a crucial card towards which party the voter will support.”

Meanwhile, a majority of Chinese voters supported the opposition in GE13 and are expected to do so in the next polls, said Puyok.

Warisan, PKR and the DAP’s increasing influence among Kadazan Dusun Murut and Chinese voters will help them capture two to three more parliamentary seats which were won by slim majorities by BN, he said.

These include Pensiangan, Kota Marudu, Beaufort, all of which were won with majorities of fewer than 2,000 votes.

Although Sabah has a diverse array of small, regional opposition parties, their appeal has not been able to match that of national parties, such as PKR and DAP, he said.

In GE13, DAP and PKR managed to gain three times the number of popular votes compared with local parties Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and State Reform Party (STAR).

Shafie’s presence has generated excitement among Sabahans from the east to the west coast, and among all its communities, but Puyok doubts that it will be enough to bring down the Sabah BN government.

“One problem is that until today, Warisan has not formed an official alliance with DAP and PKR to avoid multi-cornered fights. There is also a lack of local leadership.

“These factors combined with Musa’s strength will make it hard for BN to lose Sabah,” said Puyok.

– https://www.themalaysianinsight.com