Harapan, PAS to lose seven Selangor seats with new EC borders

EC REPORT | The Election Commission's final redelineation report for Peninsular Malaysia was tabled in Parliament today, marking a victory for the BN, which will enter the 14th general election with redrawn boundaries that favour the ruling coalition.

The new boundaries are a certainty as the EC did not propose any increase in the total number of seats, which means only a simple majority is required in the Dewan Rakyat for approval.

The bulk of the changes took place in Selangor, which could see BN capturing seven state seats from Pakatan Harapan and PAS by virtue of the redrawn borders.

These seats are Ijok, Pelabuhan Klang, Sementa, Morib, Selat Klang, Sijangkang and Dusun Tua.

The EC, after an uproar over its proposals, reverted to the status quo in its second draft. However, the final version is largely based on the controversial first draft. 

The only differences between the first draft and the final version are:

1. Kem Sungai Buloh (BN won by 1,251 votes) is moved back from Paya Jaras to Kota Damansara.
2. Kampung Budiman (BN won by 229 votes) is moved back from Kota Anggerik to Meru.
3. Pinggiran Batu Caves and Taman Selaseh (PAS won by 564 votes) are moved back from Sungai Tua (Old name: Batu Caves) to Gombak Setia.
4. Kampung Raja Uda Timur and Kampung Raja Uda Barat (BN won by 578 votes) are moved from Pandamaran to Selat Klang.

Malaysiakini in 2016 conducted an analysis of the redelineation's impact on Selangor based on the first draft. 

The analysis is reproduced below and updated with the changes in the final report mentioned above.

The chart was arrived at by recalculating the results of the 13th general election by considering the polling districts that have been moved in or out of a particular state seat.

View chart in infogram.

For many constituencies in Selangor, polling districts that favour BN were removed from opposition strongholds and inserted into marginal seats.

The biggest winners after the redelineation exercise are expected to be BN and DAP, while the biggest losers would be PKR, PAS and its splinter Amanah.

This is owing to the clustering of pro-opposition polling districts into DAP-held constituencies and the transfer of pro-BN polling districts to marginal seats, most of which are held by PKR, DAP and Amanah.

Based on data from the 13th general election, the new boundaries will see BN's state seats in Selangor increase from 12 to 19 but it will still be nine seats short of controlling the state government.

View chart in infogram.

However, the dynamics of the 14th general election will change dramatically owing to PAS no longer being allied to Pakatan Rakyat, the predecessor of Harapan.

PAS has also vowed to contest against both BN and Harapan.

Harapan hopes to counteract the loss of PAS supporters with Bersatu, which targets Umno's traditional voter base.

If Bersatu supporters fail to deliver not only seats allocated to Bersatu but also where its allies contest, a hung Selangor state assembly could become a real possibility.

Overviews on other Selangor redelineation changes

Parliamentary seats with a change in name.

No.	Old Name	New Name
P102	Serdang	Bangi
P104	Kelana Jaya	Subang
P105	Petaling Jaya Selatan	Petaling Jaya
P106	Petaling Jaya Utara	Damansara
P107	Subang	Sungai Buloh

State seats with a change in name.

No.	Old Name	New Name
N16	Batu Caves	Sungai Tua
N21	Cempaka	Pandan Indah
N26	Bangi	Sungai Ramal
N36	Damansara Utama	Bandar Utama
N44	Sungai Pinang	Selat Kelang
N45	Selat Kelang	Bandar Baru Kelang
N48	Kota Alam Shah	Sentosa
N49	Seri Andalas	Sungai Kandis
N50	Sri Muda	Kota Kemuning
N52	Teluk Datuk	Banting

Parliamentary seats with major change in voter population

Seat	Before redelineation	After redelineation	Voter change
Damansara	84,456	150,439	+65,983
Petaling Jaya	78,404	129,363	+50,959
Klang	97,812	136,222	+38,410
Subang	101,603	128,330	+26,727
Kota Raja	110,082	121,126	+11,044
Sungai Buloh	130,010	73,448	-56,562
Hulu Langat	128,974	82,951	-46,023
Kapar	146,317	106,124	-40,193
Puchong	109,473	82,698	-26,775
Selayang	107,695	93,830	-13,865
Shah Alam	104,176	90,742	-13,434

 -Mkini