Survey based on 500k on the ground, Rafizi tells Hadi

NGO Invoke says its survey on the 14th general election is based on accumulated data from 500,000 voters, contrary to PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s claim it does not reflect ground sentiment.

The think-tank's founder, Rafizi Ramli, said Hadi may not understand what survey methodology is all about when he dismissed Invoke's survey on his party's poor chances of winning seats in the coming polls as “not based on ground sentiments".

According to the PKR lawmaker, Hadi's remarks on the matter sounds as if he does not understand that survey methodology involves talking directly to people on the ground.

"Of course, we call them (the respondents) randomly, but the results are from the ground.

"When we formed Invoke, Pakatan Rakyat was falling apart and Umno was imploding, and we did not have any data to show how Malays would vote in such scenarios.

"But now, Invoke's data, which was accumulated over 1.5 years, involves 500,000 voters from various sectors of society.

"I doubt PAS' machinery has knocked on 500,000 voters’ (doors) like we have," he told Malaysiakini when met in Balik Pulau yesterday.

Rafizi was asked to comment on Hadi's remarks yesterday dismissing Invoke's survey on PAS' election chances as being merely an “academic exercise” that does not reflect the grassroots sentiments.

Hadi claimed PAS’ own survey was more grounded in the grassroots than Invoke’s.

He was responding to an Invoke survey conducted over a period up to February, involving 2,000 respondents.

Among its conclusions were that Harapan could win five states, while PAS would not win a single seat in the 14th general election, and risks even losing its stronghold Kelantan to BN, after governing the state for seven terms.

'PAS now lone ranger'

Rafizi said no one disputes the fact that PAS has "commendable" Malay support, but the current scenario is different from it was an ally of the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat.

PAS refused to join the regrouped Pakatan Harapan last year, and the federal opposition now has new allies: Amanah, a splinter party led by its former deputy Mohamed Sabu, and Bersatu, a break-away party from Umno, led by former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

"Unfortunately, PAS is on their own now, and they do not have any reinforcement from any coalition partner," said Rafizi.

"Which is why Hadi may have missed the point completely.

“In three-cornered fights in the ‘first past the post system’, no matter how strong you are, as a third party on its own, your 25 percent Malay support can never win against Pakatan or BN's," he said.

Rafizi said in the past elections of 2008 and 2013, even in their strongest seats in Terengganu or Kelantan, PAS struggled to win against BN.

This was when they were in straight fights and in the Pakatan coalition.

"Now that BN is stronger in Kelantan or Terengganu, where there are yearnings for change, the three-cornered fights may actually kill them (PAS), not the other way around," Rafizi explained.

"I'm afraid PAS has not grappled yet with the simple mechanism of three-cornered fights in a ‘first past the post’ system.

"Harapan may not have as much Malay support, but they have the support of other ethnic groups like the Chinese and Indians," Rafizi said.

‘Common sense’

Rafizi pointed out that in west coast states, Harapan's Malay votes have exceeded PAS’ over the years.

Despite the sizeable Malay support they have, PAS would always be confined to being the third party.

"That is why even when you don't do polls or knock on doors to survey, common sense tells you that PAS would lose all their seats," Rafizi said.

He added, based on the 500,000 respondents surveyed by Invoke thus far, results show Malay support for all parties has been "realigned and recalibrated."

"It is no longer Umno having a command of 60 percent of the votes. Our data shows BN and PAS have lost (voter support) considerably, so much so that Umno and Harapan votes are not much different in the west coast," Rafizi said.

"With that scenario, plus the 80 percent support of the votes from non-Malays that Harapan has, BN will find it very difficult in the west coast states in the coming elections, while PAS has no chance at all in the west coast states," Rafizi said. -Mkini