Defections: Understanding the contingencies

The political dam of Umno and BN have burst. To a large degree, this is of their own doing by virtue of the arrogance and indifference which they had shown the people. Not only was corruption perpetuated in the billions of ringgit but they took to rendering Malaysia into a half-way house between their personal ambition and wealth accumulation.

The results are as obvious as they are inevitable: a volte farce from Malaysians from all walks of life. But this is where Pakatan Harapan (Harapan) has to understand the big game of how to "Save Malaysia", without which the elected representative defections that will come from a collapsing BN and Umno will drag Harapan into a systemic opprobrium.

First of all, Harapan is not in the business of inducing elected representative defections and should not be. Each defection is morally deleterious, coming as they are from a party or coalition that has been steeped in corruption, malfeasance and abuse of power. But Harapan must find ways to absorb them precisely because they are corrupt.

Consider this as the equivalent of receiving a cocaine addict, albeit one who promised to go cold turkey to wean her or himself from any further indulgence. The law of average will lead to a high rate of relapse the more there is a crossover of these defections. But then what is the alternative? If Harapan does not resort to absorbing the first wave of defections now, the second and third wave of defections will not come too.

Yet, the genuinely contrite detractors are likely to come from the third wave. Those who concede latest are those who, ironically, will demonstrate some semblance of political value or will. Therefore, almost ironically, unless the first wave is allowed to happen matter-a-factly, one will never know where are the potential hidden gems in Umno and BN who went into politics with the ideological zeal and will to serve their constituencies.

Secondly, the trickle of defections, which will lead to a torrent in the first wave, will also reduce the number of defections over time, thus creating some semblance of government shaped by a protagonist which is Harapan, and an antagonist, which at this moment in time seems to be Umno and BN, unless they crumble further into sheer nothingness, as they will since Umno and BN are not made nor meant to be a credible opposition precisely due to their hunger for cash, contracts and concessions (3 C's).

Those who remain behind the barracks to protect what is no longer unprotectable in Umno and BN will at least provide some modicum of opposition -- which indeed is what Harapan need to be a sound government.

Thirdly, defections, if handled well, can lead to confidence building in Harapan, precisely due to their controversial nature. If Harapan knows how to debate and discuss each defection behind close door --- therefore enhancing the internal mechanism of Harapan --- then the long game of being a steady government would redound to Harapan, making it a more resilient political organization.

Fourthly, defections are coming from across the aisle due to a collapse or erosion of their moral conviction, which in turn provide the chance to impel Harapan to raise its own immunity. Checks and balances within the government are now more important than ever in order to neutralize any counterproductive effects of these defections.

Each of these defections, regardless of their timing or waves, is an invitation to Harapan to enhance its own internal strength and coherence first, especially with regard to its own 100-day program and five-year manifesto too.

If Harapan cannot handle defections, then it will always take to confusing moral principle as the be-all and end-all of politics alone, short of understanding the larger stakes at work, which is internal coherence and unity in Harapan as the gold standard of a clean and strong government.

Take the defections from Umno and BN as opposed to those from PAS. The latter is formed of an ostensibly religious core. Yet, if PAS does not care much about its ideological conviction --- which it doesn't --- it helps Harapan to convince more Malaysian voters that PAS is a fraud fronting as a religious party. Defections, in other words, can highlight the weakness of the other side.

Fifthly, defections will involve political selection of the defectors. If more defections ended up in the ledger of DAP, for instance, which is not something that can be discounted, it implies the work of a deep state to make DAP even stronger to reinforce the narrative that Harapan is under the nose of a Chinese-led DAP.

If the defectors exercise the DAP as opposed to Bersatu or PKR, it suggests the active shenanigan of the office bearers who lost their party moorings to drive a stake through the heart of Harapan. Thus to understand their plot, the goal is to see how the "frogs" leap.

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RAIS HUSSIN is a Bersatu supreme council member, and heads its policy and strategy bureau. -Mkini