Invoke predicts slim win for Harapan, wipeout for PAS

GE14 | Invoke Malaysia's has predicted that Pakatan Harapan would form the next federal government with a simple majority based on its latest voter inclination modeling exercise and survey results for Peninsula Malaysia.

The group also predicted that PAS would not win a single seat - state and parliament - throughout Peninsula Malaysia, contrary to the Islamist party's research centre predicting a green tsunami in its favour.

BN, on the other hand, is expected to do well only in Perlis, Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan, but would only win 54 parliamentary seats against Harapan's 111.

The survey involved 11,991 respondents, who were selected through random stratified sampling and weighted according to the population for each state. The data was finallised last Thursday.

Invoke Malaysia's founder Rafizi Ramli explained that the latest survey found that Harapan's Malay support had grown in recent weeks and was closing in on the support BN has.

In contrast, PAS' support nationwide was estimated to be at a stable 27 percent.

Rafizi, who is also PKR vice-president, said apart from Penang, Selangor and the Federal Territories, Harapan's Malay support was slightly behind BN, from a range of 3.5 percent to 13.1 percent.

Key: Mixed-seats

In view of the expected high non-Malay support for Harapan, Rafizi said this would help the coalition win in most of the 90 mixed-ethnicity parliamentary constituencies while the 35 non-Malay majority constituencies were already in the bag.

"I need to bring the perspective of vote differential. In order to produce the kind of result that BN achieved in the last election, BN had a 30 percent advantage over (Harapan's predecessor) Pakatan Rakyat in terms of Malay support.

"Look at the differential now. There is not a single state where it is above even 20 percent," he added.

Rafizi explained that the predictions were not the result of "gut feelings" but based on the model that Invoke had designed.

Some of the bold predictions by Invoke's model was that Harapan would sweep all parliamentary seats in Selangor and win 54 out of 56 state seats.

PAS: Is 'strong', but...

Invoke also predicted that BN would win all parliamentary seats in Terengganu and lose only one state seat - Bandar - to Harapan.

As for Kelantan, Invoke's model predicted that Harapan would win one parliamentary seat and three state seats with the rest going to BN.

Rafizi said Invoke's model did not suggest PAS was weak and in fact, the party controlled about a quarter of the Malay vote.

"However, they need at least 40 percent to win anywhere," he said in view of the fact that PAS' non-Muslim support was negligible.

Invoke's election prediction model assumed that 75 to 82 percent of Chinese voters and between 45 and 55 percent of Indian voters would back Harapan. - Mkini