Part 2 Will Anwar Make It To PM - Mahathir, Anwar and the Islamist threat by Clive Kessler

“OPINION"  Nikkei Asian Review 

By Clive Kessler

Mahathir, Anwar and the Islamist threat

Malaysia must see full recovery of democracy, or risk ethnic and religious strife

elections either announced a new dawn or 

mark beginning of another dark and difficult time 

rush of unimaginable events over last two weeks -- 

immovable structures and obstacles crumbled -- 

suggest bright days for Southeast Asian nation.

convicted felon has become prime-minister-in-waiting

omnipotent prime minister risks being convicted felon

appearances may be misleading

• A lot now hangs on the 92-year-old Mahathir and his allies. 
• Should he fail to secure a long-lasting recovery in Malaysian democracy, it could signal doom for the hopes of peaceful democratization throughout Asia and beyond. 
• The implications of developments in this Muslim-majority nation for Islamist politics worldwide could be even more ominous.

road ahead for Malaysia is long and hard 

problems facing Mahathir's new government personal and deeply political

Mahathir has returned to the top office, an ostensible national savior 

will hand over to Anwar, released from jail, at some time

But not quite yet

Anwar's loyalists want it to be sooner 

Some people fear return of Mahathir

old authoritarian not changed stripes, say his critics

others happy to see him stay on 

knows better than anyone how to wield power 

to consolidate the new order 

has enormous standing among public

especially with UMNO loyalists

• These people will be less inclined to accept more polarizing Anwar
• fear Anwar who was Islamist 
• often proved facilitator for harder-line Islamists
• may succumb to same temptations

Mahathir, they know gives primacy to individual religious conscience 

abhors traditional clerical establishment and political pretensions

Anwar's main in-house problem not Mahathir

he will find Muhyiddin Yassin entrenched 

Muhyiddin proven and wily grappler in close political combat

Muhyiddin more acceptable to UMNO than Najib

aura of Malay authenticity, sincerity beyond Najib's conjuring

fatal for Najib when he lost Muhyiddin as Malay retail broker, intermediary

Middle East Arab Spring proved long, bleak winter

Najib became dependent upon Islamists for survival

UMNO and PAS may become even closer

should Pakatan stumble, Islamist force will come to power 

far from impossible scenario

dire implications for Malaysia and region 

anxiety about advancing Islamism

A lot is hanging, worldwide, on new M'sian govt succeeding

Clive Kessler is emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales 

My comments :  

This opinion has appeared in the Nikkei Asean Review. Many people are reading it.

So Clive Kessler feels that Anwar may not have the Prime Minister's Office handed to him on a silver platter. 

Kessler has identified Muhyiddin Yassin as the main rival for Anwar. Muhyiddin is President of PPBM which won only 12  Parliamentary seats. Anwar's PKR has 51 seats - 49 won in the elections plus two cross overs. 

How can  Muhyiddin Yassin with only 12 seats in Parliament rival Anwar with 51 seats?

I am sure Muhyiddin's people can also add. 
Zahid Hamidi's boys can also add and subtract.
I am not so sure about Anwar or his people though.

The big question (in my loud opinion) is time and timing.  

Who will time favour?

Maybe in the next part.