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Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Breaking : Game Changer In Syria / Middle East, Erdogan To Eat ISIS Crows

Folks, as we speak, the last remnants of the ISIS in Syria are on the brink of being wiped out in an area called Idlib. The remnant is not small. There are about 70,000 of them - varying shades of rapists, murderers and plunderers.  

But Syrian government forces, Russian and Iranian troops have encircled them around Idlib and are poised to smash the last remaining ISIS stronghold. There is some respite - until 7th September 2018, when Vladimir Putin, Rouhanie Abbas and Erdogan meet in Teheran for a conference on what will happen during and after the expected Idlib campaign.   

I think Putin will tell BOTH Erdogan and Rouhanie exactly where their buses should stop.  

Here is the news :

Erdoğan's Dilemma
August 30, 2018

https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/beyond-the-lines-erdogan-s-dilemma

Syrian, Russian forces offensive into Idlib in northwest Syria
final major action in war 

Moscow moved 10 warships, 2  submarines off western Syria
largest concentration of Russian naval forces since Sept 2015

dispatching ground forces from south
recent offensive against ISIS in Sweida area

Idlib final chapter in Russian-led strategy begun three years ago

around 70,000 rebel fighters inside Idlib
dominant are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (ex Jabhat al-Nusra)
new Turkish-supported Jaish al-Watani (National Army)

Turkish Jaish al-Watani in Idlib reflects complex situation 

once Idlib captured dynamic in Syria conclusively shift 
represents dilemma for Turkey




Ankara abandoned Assad to throw full weight behind Sunni ISIS

saw ISIS as Sunni Arabs sweeping Middle East
Erdogan's AKP envisaged itself leader of these movements
Unfortunately for Erdogan, Sunni ISIS wave brief, little imprint on region

With Russians in Syria, ISIS lost hope of defeating Assad 
Turkey changed focus in Syria to two areas
prevent Kurds across 900-km. Syrian-Turkish border 
prevent complete defeat and destruction of ISIS 
which represent humiliating failure for Erdogan

successful Idlib offensive will pressure Turks to quit 
Turkey to accept final and total eclipse of Sunni ISIS 
clear humiliating total defeat of Turkey’s aims

Kurds to retain large area east of Euphrates represents double defeat

Turkey foreign minister met his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov
Erdogan to go to Iran Sept 7, to meet Putin and Rouhani
northwest Syria to dominate the discussions

Russian position pivotal
Iran supports reunification of Syria 
Turkey clearly prefers status quo

Russia in alliance with Assad and Iran
Moscow interest in drawing Erdogan further away from US
Putin will seek face-saving formula for Erdogan
Russia supreme arbiter in Syria, positive relations with all forces

Erdogan seeking to salvage something in Syria

As Erdogan goes down to military defeat, great game in high gear

My comments :  Please look at the map of Idlib again. Idlib is tucked right against the Syrian - Turkey border. That Idlib border with Turkey is about 60 - 70 miles long.

For three years, Putin has been collecting and shoving all the ISIS fighters from all over Syria and pushing them into a tight corner in Idlib.  ISIS is Erdogan's baby too.

Putin even provided buses with safe passage passes to transport ISIS fighters and the families from Damascus to Idlib. This has been happening since last year.

Now Putin, the Syrians and Iran will launch a massive campaign to smash these 70,000 ISIS fighters.  

Here is what I think will happen.  (Just thinking aloud.)

Erdogan is travelling to Teheran on 7th September to meet Putin and Rouhanie. I believe Putin will tell Erdogan to open his borders and allow the 70,000 ISIS to move into Turkey. Turkey gave birth to these murderous satans. Now its time to take these crows back.    Otherwise the Russians will attack and wipe them out.

My guess is Erdogan will say no. Go ahead and smash them, Erdogan will tell Putin. Meaning Erdogan would have stabbed the ISIS in the back. The ISIS that he himself helped to create and sustain.

And that is exactly what Putin will do. Putin and Assad will smash the ISIS to bits. A substantial number will still escape to Turkey.

Putin may also do Western Europe another favour. They will put the word out that many ISIS are escaping to Europe pretending to be refugees. This will help Western Europe to allow the refugees to drown in the Meditteranean and still sleep soundly at night.

Just thinking aloud. 

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