BN, PH stand to lose as both battle for Johor’s 56 seats, says analyst

 Awang Azman Pawi says Pakatan Harapan could see a drop in voter turnout, while Barisan Nasional risks losing protest votes to Perikatan Nasional.

Over the weekend, BN and PH state chapter chiefs Onn Hafiz Ghazi and Aminolhuda Hassan both announced that their respective coalitions intend to contest for all 56 Johor state seats.

PETALING JAYA:

A political analyst says both Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional stand to lose, albeit in different ways, by contesting all 56 seats at the next Johor state election.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said PH could see a drop in the number of supporters coming out to cast their ballot, discouraged by the fact that allies were going head to head.

“There would be a drop in motivation among PH supporters to come out and vote.

“A PH-BN fight would be politically confusing for urban voters, the youth and the non-Malay electorate,” he told FMT.

BN, on the other hand, risks losing protest votes to Perikatan Nasional, he added.

Awang Azman said three-cornered fights involving BN, PH and PN in mixed and suburban seats could see the opposition coalition snatch a win, even if only by a small majority.

He pointed out that at the 2022 state polls, 24.04% of the electorate voted for PN despite the opposition coalition only winning three seats. The figure, he argued, suggests the threat PN poses should not be underestimated or dismissed.

“So if BN and PH vie for the same seats, PN stands to benefit, not because it is the strongest coalition, but because of split votes.”

He went on to say that Johor BN’s declaration that it would contest all seats was a combination of confidence, pressure linked to negotiations and a strategy to revive Umno’s image as a dominant party.

However, BN would do well to guard against “overconfidence”, he added.

“The political landscape after 2018 is no longer static. Voters are more critical and would have no qualms about punishing a party that prioritises power over stability and the wellbeing of people.”

On Saturday, Johor BN chief Onn Hafiz Ghazi said the coalition will contest in every seat after taking into account the views and aspirations of the Johor people, as well as feedback from Umno and BN grassroots leaders in the state.

One day later, Johor PH announced it would do the same.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, agreed that split votes would hurt both coalitions.

“It does not matter whether these are urban, semi-urban, mixed or rural seats where the Malays are the majority.

“Both (coalitions) will suffer because they each have their own supporters.”

Azmi said that in the end, no party will have the majority to form the government leaving both coalitions needing each other’s help.

“That will see a very ‘pseudo’ cooperation between these two political parties,” he said.

Both PH and BN are well aware of this, he said, and their “going solo” declarations are nothing more than a rallying cry to supporters. - FMT