So soon after Pakatan Harapan and Umno traded barbs, including a warning by the prime minister over seat allocations for what could be snap federal and state elections, the Madani government said parties have committed to a full term.
On Sunday, as former PKR ministers and now also ex-MPs, Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, announced their new political endeavour Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama), Anwar Ibrahim, in a desperate address at a Harapan meet at the same time, was warning that if Umno competed against Harapan seats, it would be no holds barred.
But barely two days later, calm seems to have magically returned, with government spokesperson Fahmi Fadzil saying coalitions within Madani have reaffirmed their commitment to work together until the end of the parliamentary term.
That’s a rather quick turnaround, but if I were you, I would not consider that set in stone, but rather on sand, which may quickly be blown away by a mere gust of wind.
It’s, after all, the age of decoys - Rafizi did say on Sunday he sent in applications to register a party so that officialdom will not suspect that he would be acquiring - or rather be given free of charge - a ready-made party in the form of Bersama.
If conditions are favourable, you can safely bet your bottom dollar, sorry ringgit, that this reaffirmed commitment within Madani, which was on the rocks just a few days ago, will be cavalierly abandoned to gain any advantage. That’s politics for you.
What amazes me, and I am sure many of you too, is how quickly the reaffirmation has been made, although no one is telling us who precisely made it and how, moving from conflagration to calm in a trice - how convenient.
Perhaps Rafizi was right when he said that the Madani coalition was made of “dark lovers” who fought vigorously in public for the benefit of their constituents and to show their courage and conviction, but in the dark kissed and schemed to stay in power to the public’s detriment.
This is cloak-and-dagger stuff. Even if they made out in the dark, that does not mean a long union - a marriage of convenience whose bonds will be broken anytime anyone sees an opportunity. And then the knives will be out.
Umno upheavals and shifting alliances
Umno politics is not just complicated; its reach is extensive, especially for a party in decline. Dr Mahathir Mohamad, an Umno PM who first stepped down in 2003, somehow gained confidence in round two to become Harapan’s PM in 2018. But he refused to hand over power to Anwar as promised.
He did not last, however, but was gotten rid of by former Umno deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, via the notorious Sheraton Move triggered by a defection of PKR MPs led by Azmin Ali - betrayal after betrayal.
Muhyiddin, in typical Umno fashion, declared an emergency to stay in power, but Umno was not to be outdone, eventually gaining power through Ismail Sabri Yaakob in August 2021 when Muhyiddin resigned after an Umno faction withdrew support for him.
Well, the rakyat must have gotten tired of this betrayal after betrayal and gave Umno only 26 seats in the 15th general election in November 2022. Anwar, himself a former Umno deputy prime minister, got to form the government because his coalition had the largest number of parliamentary seats.
He wasted no time in partnering with Umno, bringing his old friend Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as first deputy prime minister, sidelining his own deputy Rafizi in the process, who had worked tirelessly for PKR. Even PKR was sidelined with Umno getting plum appointments in the cabinet.
Somehow or other, all charges against Zahid were dropped with the infamous discharge not amounting to acquittal (DNAA) and even for those, there is a move to get an unconditional acquittal.
Anwar seems closer to Umno than to PKR, and the schism within PKR widened, leading to Rafizi and Nik Nazmi striking out on their own, with some estimating a support of eight other MPs to make a total of 10 dissenters.
The fact that they have a political party is a major threat, not only to PKR but to the entire Madani coalition, making them a true third force who could stir and even shake things up further in this weird cocktail of happenings.
Putting ties to the test
Perhaps that could be the real reason for postponing elections, in addition to the really volatile international environment in terms of the Iran war, rising oil prices, inflation, and a host of imponderables from a madman called Trump.
So, by tying himself to the Umno boat, Anwar has chosen a rather leaky vessel, which the public has soundly rejected in the last two rounds - from 88 seats (2013) to 54 (2018) and 26 (2022) - for an unprecedentedly bad record.
Umno needs Anwar and Harapan more than they need Umno, but beware, the moment Umno doesn’t need them or thinks it doesn’t need them, Harapan will be dropped like a hot stone - no alliance with Umno will last for long.
The schism between the two will start soon. The general election has to be held by the end of February 2028, but the Malacca and Johor state elections are due by February and June 2027.
It looks like it might be easier to just have the two state elections separately and move on to reduce the inevitable conflict. Also, that will be an opportunity to gauge how much support Madani will have and whether its tenuous links with Umno will still hold.
We have a rocky ride ahead, folks, with a wild card called Bersama, which threatens to pull all of us together. It may be a bit too early for that, but who knows? Stranger things have happened. Who thought Harapan had a hope in 2018?
We can describe our political situation going forward in three words - uncertainty, uncertainty, and uncertainty. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM says change is uncertainty too.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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