With snap elections anticipated this year, a question that many are wondering about is whether the Madani pact will remain intact or will Pakatan Harapan and BN part ways and clash.
On BN's side, there have been growing internal calls for the coalition to go solo and return to its heyday of being the dominant political force in the country.
This strategy appeared to gain more prominence after BN assemblypersons in Negeri Sembilan withdrew support from the Harapan menteri besar and attempted to form a new state government with Perikatan Nasional.
However, BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has indicated that he is hedging his bets.
In an interview with media organisations owned by Media Prima yesterday, Zahid said that BN would most likely go solo, while also having an "understanding" with other parties.
"We have gone solo all this while, in the 14th and 15th general elections. In the coming situation, we are most likely going to go solo.
"However, we must take into account an understanding with other parties, especially to avoid seat overlaps and three-cornered fights," he was quoted as saying by Berita Harian.
Not fighting ‘friendly parties’
The deputy prime minister added that BN will focus on contesting "winnable" seats and not fighting with "friendly parties".
The last two remarks point towards an electoral pact, although this does not necessarily mean that those with an "understanding" will campaign for each other.
Zahid's positioning appears aimed at appeasing hardliners in his party, while also ensuring BN does not fall victim to vote splitting.
However, even if an electoral agreement sans-partnership is achieved with Harapan, there is no guarantee that there will be vote transferability between supporters of the two coalitions - like in the 2023 six state elections - where the two officially partnered.
‘Distrust is high’
"Distrust is so high right now on both sides. Harapan grassroots are especially very unhappy with BN, so Harapan needs to further 'sell' the justification of working with BN," International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political analyst Syaza Shukri told Malaysiakini.
"Same with BN. The vote transferability has been very weak because BN supporters still don’t trust Harapan, especially DAP," she added.
Syaza opined that a loose coalition will likely be formed as neither Harapan nor BN is popular or strong enough to contest elections alone, and to avoid letting PN capitalise on three-cornered fights.
She also opined that this is why Umno made a "U-turn" in Negeri Sembilan instead of continuing to push to form a government with PN.
Likewise, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the Negeri Sembilan episode is likely to discourage BN and Harapan supporters from voting for each other "passionately".
"This, however, does not mean Umno and Harapan have to turn into full-fledged enemies," he told Malaysiakini.
He said a "limited electoral pact" between the two may see the two clash in several seats - but not enough to jeopardise each other's chances of winning.
This, Wong said, would encourage BN and Harapan supporters to vote.
He said in such a scenario, they will likely avoid clashes where split votes will benefit PN.
Additionally, Wong said they could come up with a code of conduct to "keep campaigning hostility within control, or better still, produce friendly matches".
He said this would leave the room open for BN and Harapan to form a post-election coalition.
Wong also noted that while PN is more ideologically similar to BN, this also means they would compete for support from the same pool of voters. - Mkini
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.