KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysians should brace for prolonged droughts, extreme heat, water shortages, forest fires and severe haze from this month as the country edges towards a "Super El Nino", climatologists said.
Experts warned that while El Nino is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions, global warming is also contributing to sudden and destructive flash floods.
They said urban flooding is being worsened by overdevelopment and inadequate drainage systems, urging authorities to harness artificial intelligence (AI)-based forecasting and adopt "sponge city" concepts to better absorb heavy rainfall and reduce extreme heat.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia's Professor Emeritus Dr Fredolin Tangang said the extreme climate phenomenon would affect Malaysia until April or May next year, intensifying the recent swings between heatwaves and flash floods.
"We are on the verge of an extreme El Nino. It is imminent, it is huge and we will feel its impacts," he said.
He said research showed storm intensity in Kuala Lumpur had increased steadily over the past three decades.
To mitigate escalating climate risks, he said integrating AI into the Malaysian Meteorological Department's existing systems could improve forecasting accuracy and provide earlier warnings of flash floods.
"MetMalaysia already has a system in place to predict thunderstorms and the likelihood of flash floods in Kuala Lumpur.
"Research must continue. The authorities should explore how AI can improve forecasts for these events and extend warning lead times," he told the New Straits Times.
He also called on local councils to urgently embrace smarter urban planning.
"Since city design heavily influences flash floods, local councils must build sustainably. They have to incorporate long-term climate projections into development planning to build truly flood-resilient neighbourhoods."
ERRATIC WEATHER FROM JANUARY TO MAY
Between January and May, monsoon rains and violent inter-monsoon thunderstorms triggered widespread flooding, landslides, fallen trees and large-scale displacement across Malaysia.
The first major episode occurred from Jan 8 to 12, when severe flooding struck Sabah, Sarawak and Selangor.
This was followed by torrential rain from Feb 21 to 27 that affected 146 villages in East Malaysia.
From March 9 to 13, persistent rainfall displaced more than 1,650 people in Sabah and Sarawak.
Recurring afternoon storms on April 20 and May 6 submerged parts of Kuala Lumpur and the Klang Valley, including Petaling Jaya, Ampang and Shah Alam, as well as major routes such as Jalan Kuchai Lama, the Bukit Jalil Light Rail Transit station and the Kesas Highway.
On May 8, flash floods and uprooted trees were reported across the Klang Valley, including in Ampang, Sungai Besi, Shah Alam, Petaling Jaya and Gombak.
According to the Irrigation and Drainage Department, convective rainfall exceeding 60mm over a two- to four-hour period may trigger flash floods. Monsoon rain, however, typically lasts longer and can occasionally exceed several hundred millimetres within 24 hours.
Rainfall intensity is classified as light (1-10mm), moderate (11-30mm), heavy (31-60mm) and very heavy (more than 60mm) within a one-hour period.
SUPER EL NINO
Fredolin said Malaysia was on the verge of an extreme El Nino, commonly referred to as a "Super El Nino".
"It is imminent, it is massive and we will be impacted from June until April or May next year.
"Consequently, the likelihood of droughts, hotter conditions, forest fires, local and transboundary haze episodes, water crises and health and food insecurity will increase significantly."
He said local councils should make greater use of climate data, prioritise sustainable construction and incorporate future climate projections into urban planning.
Universiti Malaya meteorologist Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said rapid development and inadequate drainage, rather than climate change alone, remained the primary causes of chronic flash floods in Kuala Lumpur and Petaling Jaya.
He said the KL-PJ conurbation was built on the Sungai Klang floodplain and was therefore naturally vulnerable to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall.
"The flash flood issue, especially in KL and PJ, is more to do with overdevelopment and drainage. Therefore, drainage systems and water retention measures must be deliberately incorporated into urban planning."
He said Putrajaya's surrounding wetlands demonstrated the effectiveness of "soft engineering" and long-term planning.
"The wetlands play an important role in reducing flash floods in Putrajaya. In contrast, KL is more prone to flash floods because its drainage system was not expanded alongside the increase in concreted surfaces, resulting in much higher surface run-off during downpours."
'SPONGE CITY' CONCEPT
Azizan said councils should adopt the "sponge city" concept by integrating forests, green lungs and water retention areas into development plans.
Given the Klang Valley's dense population and concentration of valuable infrastructure, he said government agencies and local councils must account for extreme weather risks, including torrential rain and intense heatwaves, in future planning.
"Because many cities in the Klang Valley grew organically rather than by design, a stricter and more integrated master plan is now required to introduce green, wetland and forested spaces into the existing concrete jungle.
"Soft engineering solutions, as demonstrated in Putrajaya, prove that predictive planning is far better than reactive planning for extreme weather."
Azizan said studies showed that extreme rainfall events had become more frequent, particularly on the East Coast.
However, he said the West Coast had recorded a declining trend in 99th percentile rainfall.
PREPARE FOR DRY SPELL
He said the recent heavy downpours across the West Coast were well within expectations for the April-May inter-monsoon period.
"The next peak episodes of heavy rainfall are projected during the October-November inter-monsoon period and the early stages of the Northeast Monsoon, lasting until December in Peninsular Malaysia and extending into January and February in East Malaysia."
Azizan said Malaysia must prepare for a prolonged dry spell, with climate models indicating an 82 per cent probability of an El Nino event developing between May and July, rising to 96 per cent from December through February next year.
"Expect a drier-than-normal season for our region, with perhaps 10 to 20 per cent less rainfall from now onwards.
"While this drier climate reduces the risk of major catastrophic flooding during the upcoming Northeast Monsoon, it opens the door to other environmental hazards.
"The drier weather may result in more heatwaves from May to July and when Indonesia's burning season begins from July to September, haze could return."
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