KINIGUIDE | Pakatan Harapan and BN are competing head-on in the Johor state polls to prove which coalition truly dominates this southern state, in a contest that would have direct implications for the future of the Madani government.
As nominations for candidates closed today, the presence of these coalitions means that the majority of contests - or 42 seats - are between multiple candidates.
Of that number, three-cornered contests are the most common in 27 constituencies, while 12 seats will see four candidates.
Malaysiakini takes a closer look at the main trends shaping this election, identifying the hottest contests and the key personalities involved.
The main players
There are three main coalitions: Harapan, BN, and Perikatan Nasional.
But the main fight is between BN and Harapan, who are contesting against each other in all 56 state assembly seats.
There are straight contests between them in 14 seats. Whoever captures 29 seats will be able to form the next state government, as per the first-past-the-post system.
The two coalitions-turned-frenemies are battling for a state which switched hands between the 2018 general election - where Harapan took over Johor - and the 2022 state election when BN wrestled it back.
A Malaysiakini analysis of marginal seats recently revealed that had the 2022 Johor election happened simultaneously with the general election, Harapan would have won enough seats to take over the Johor government.
Voter turnout will be the critical determining factor. If Harapan can convince its supporters to return home to vote and push the overall turnout to levels similar to the 2022 general election (about 70 percent), it stands a strong chance of repeating its 2018 victory.
PAS, Bersatu, and ex-Harapan upstarts in Bersama
PN parties - PAS, Bersatu, MIPP and Pejuang - are taking on BN and Harapan in 33 seats, while Parti Bersama Malaysia is contesting 15 seats.
Muda is fielding candidates in four seats, while its ally PSM is fielding one candidate.
PAS and Bersatu are incumbents in two and one seats, respectively. According to pollster Hisomuddin Bakar of the Ilham Centre, incumbency and a good service track record tend to boost a candidate’s chances because they already have recognition among voters.
At the same time, Bersama, founded by former PKR leaders Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, drawing support from Harapan voters, could potentially split the coalition's votes.
Bersama is placing most of its eggs in one basket - the greater Johor Bahru area - with 13 out of 15 candidates fielded here.
Among the seats Bersama is contesting include Skudai, Puteri Wangsa, and Senai.
These 15 seats, including Puteri Wangsa which is currently held by Muda, are Harapan strongholds.
Some of the hottest contests are anticipated in seats such as Puteri Wangsa, Larkin, Tiram, Bukit Permai, and Stulang.
In Puteri Wangsa, former education minister Maszlee Malik is carrying the Harapan flag in a bid to oust Muda, which currently holds the seat through incumbent Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz.
Amira had decided not to defend Puteri Wangsa this time around, giving way to Rashifa Aljunied - who is a Muda central committee member.
Maszlee will also face Nicholas Paul Vincent of Bersama, Teo Chia Ling of MCA, and independent Wang Wee Siong.
Larkin is another hot contest, where former Johor state assembly speaker and Pulai MP Suhaizan Kayat is challenging Umno heavyweight and ex-state executive councillor Hairi Mad Shah. Harapan won the seat in 2018, but it fell to BN in 2022.
However, to win this seat, Suhaizan also has to take on Norsinah Abu of Bersama, who was a community service officer under Harapan's Johor Baru parliamentary office.
What else to watch for
After facing criticism for its handling of the resignation of popular Skudai state legislator Marina Ibrahim, the Chinese-majority DAP has fielded three new candidates from the Malay community.
They are Nor Zulaila Abd Ghani in Tiram, Shazwan Dzainal Abidin in Parit Raja, and Shafwan Ani in Bukit Permai. All have their work cut out for them in these constituencies where Malays make up over 53 percent of voters.
In Tiram, Zulaila will face both BN and PN, represented by Abdul Halim Suleiman and Khirul Muntanazar Ismail, respectively. In addition, she will also face Bersama’s Dr Harith Fakhrudin.
Halim served as the Puteri Wangsa assemblyperson from 2004 to 2013. He also served as a special officer to the deputy prime minister between 2014 and 2018.
In Bukit Permai, Shafwan will face Umno heavyweight and former state exco, Jafni Shukor, who captured the seat in 2022 with a 4,755-vote majority. He also faces M Lina Manoh of the MIPP and Bersama’s Aidil Riduan.
As for Parit Raja, Shazwan will face incumbent Nor Rashidah Ramli (BN) and Dr Maliki Rapiee (PN).
One factor Harapan has going for it in these two seats is that the coalition won them in 2018 but lost them in 2022, indicating that these constituencies are marginal and highly competitive.
However, Harapan also has to contend with the fact that Bersama has also fielded candidates in Tiram and Bukit Permai, who can draw away its supporters.
Meanwhile, DAP’s coalition partner Amanah, is fielding its first non-Muslim candidate, Sharon Teo, in the Malay-majority Permas.
Interestingly, the seat was won by MIC in 2004 and 2008, both times against PAS. In 2004, Paliksina Siwalinggam defeated Syed Othman Abdullah.
In 2008, M Munusamy won the seat, defeating Syed Othman. Both wins were by a considerable majority.
This time in Permas, Teo will face incumbent Baharudin Taib of Umno, who won the seat in 2022 with a 7,926-vote majority. She will also face T Vela of the MIPP and Dr Zamil Najwah, a former Harapan candidate from the 2022 election, who is now with Bersama.
Zamil was previously PKR’s candidate for the Larkin state seat in the 2022 Johor election.
Amanah's move with Teo mirrors the DAP's move when it named Dyana Sofya Daud in Teluk Intan in 2014, which was viewed as an effort to broaden cross-ethnic representation in candidate selection.
Teluk Intan, however, is a mixed and swing constituency, and despite Dyana’s popularity, which bordered on a fan-like following at the time, she lost by a narrow 238-vote margin to then-Gerakan president Mah Siew Keong.
Does choice of candidates matter in Johor?
According to Hisomuddin, the importance of a candidate’s stature differs according to age group but is significant in the state polls.
“Based on our pre-election field research in Johor, we found that for 18 to 30-year-olds, the candidate factor is very dominant. This group tends to wait until after nomination day and the whole campaign period before making a decision.
“They tend to scrutinise the candidate in detail, including the person’s background, communication skills, social media prowess, track record, and the ability to carry out their aspirations.
“In other words, the personality and image of a candidate is a factor that overrides partisan sentiments for them," he added.
For Johor voters over the age of 40, the centre discovered that a party’s candidate is only one among many factors, including local and national issues as well as their party affiliation, that make up their choice of who to vote for.
“In Johor, a party’s candidate is among the most important factors for voters this time.
“Even though the choice of party is also important, voters are giving more attention to the quality of the candidate,” said Hisomuddin.
Outlook
As the 14-day official campaign period begins, as of now, BN seems to have a slight upper hand in its chances to win enough seats to maintain control over Johor.
This is due to factors such as the incumbency factor, the state's government track record under caretaker menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi, and PN’s decision not to contest in 23 seats, including 13 seats where BN is the incumbent party.
At the same time, its main rival, Harapan, has to do a lot of heavy lifting to get its outstation supporters to return and cast their ballots.
In comparison, most of BN’s supporters live and work in Johor itself, as evidenced by its ability to capture the state in 2022 with a voter turnout rate of only about 50 percent.
Harapan also has to contend with candidates from Bersama, who are expected to snatch support away from the coalition.
Another BN victory in Johor will, however, continue to sour ties between the two coalitions that make up the Madani federal administration and impact their collaboration in the upcoming Negeri Sembilan polls scheduled for August.
The outcome of that state election is also expected to shape when Harapan and BN should decide to part ways, ahead of the 16th general election. - Mkini
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