How straight fights virtually guarantee 7 BN wins, 3 for Harapan

 

JOHOR POLLS | Straight fights in 14 Johor seats look set to guarantee seven wins for BN against Pakatan Harapan on July 11.

These are seats that BN would have been in the lead in even if the polls had been held concurrently with the 15th general election in November 2022, and could stand to gain a boost from Perikatan Nasional supporters who don't want Harapan to win.

This vote transferability is highly likely, with PAS even ordering its members to vote for BN rather than Harapan in these seats.

In six of the set-to-win seats - Machap, Benut, Buloh Kasap, Tanjung Surat, Pekan Nanas, and Kukup - BN's vote share in November 2022 were 40 percent and above, according to data from electiondata.my.

With PN votes, this is expected to increase to 60 percent or higher.

Even if PN voters choose to stay at home instead of voting BN, the latter is expected to come out on top.

Higher vote share possible

In the other set-to-win seat, Pulai Sebatang, an analysis of Parliament-level votes at the state constituency level during a four-cornered fight in GE15 had BN narrowly ahead of Harapan by 114 votes.

In terms of vote share, BN had 36.3 percent of the votes, and Harapan 36 percent.

This would have made it a swing seat. However, with PN making way for BN, BN's vote share is expected to exceed 55 percent.

The vote share could be even higher if there's low turnout among Harapan voters, which allowed BN to win the seat with 50.1 percent of the votes during the last state election.

In addition to these seven seats where victory is at hand, BN also stands a better chance of holding on to Bekok, Parit Yaani, and Yong Peng with support from PN.

These three seats were among the 25 BN seats Malaysiakini previously said were at risk and could have been won by Harapan if the last state polls were held concurrently with GE15.

However, polling data showed that if BN and PN votes were combined, then BN would be trailing by 1-2 percent of votes in Bekok and Yong Peng, while leading with 54 percent of votes in Parit Yaani.

Harapan's only hope in these three seats is to ensure a strong turnout, while somehow dissuading PN voters from backing BN.

DAP leaders and supporters accompanying Skudai candidate J Kartiyani on nomination day

Additionally, Tangkak - which DAP has held since 2013 - could be a tough contest if turnout among Harapan voters is low.

However, it’s not all bad news for Harapan. Unless it experiences a drastic drop in votes, DAP is more than likely to retain Bentayan, Penggaram and Mengkibol, which are Chinese majority seats.

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- Mkini