“Now Johor, NS, Melaka can have simultaneous state polls, easier to gauge the Madani gov’t strength”

 

THAT the Negeri Sembilan (NS) state assembly will be ‘prematurely’ dissolved effective today (June 5) – the second after Johor’s dissolution on Monday (June 1) – will likely see Melaka following suit although it has until Dec 30, 2026 to do so.

This has prompted punters to stare at the prospect of three simultaneous state elections should UMNO which is keen to test its “go solo” mettle decides to dissolve the Melaka state assembly in the near term.

Late last night (June 4), rife speculation of a move to oust the sitting ruler Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir has led to Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun unveiling the dissolution of its state assembly after receiving consent from the former, according to financial portal The Edge Malaysia.

In the 2023 NS state election, Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 17 of the 36 state seats while Barisan Nasional (BN)/UMNO secured 14 seats and Perikatan Nasional (PN) won five.

In late April, BN’s 14 assemblymen withdrew support for MB Aminuddin, citing a loss of confidence in his handling of an on-going constitutional dispute involving four Undang (traditional chieftains) who sought to remove the state’s ruler, Tuanku Muhriz, and replace him with Tunku Nazaruddin Tuanku Jaafar.

Popular statistician Thevesh (@Thevesh) expects Johor alongside NS and Melaka to hold their respective state polls “around mid-to-end July”.

PH in shaky situation?

According to the data geek, it would be interesting if Sarawak joins the fray given technically, the Bornean state is due for elections before Johor (Sarawak” February 2027; Johor: April 2027).

“But since the Johor election must happen by end-July, I highly doubt Sarawak will dissolve yet (given the exercise to raise the number of its state seats to 99 from 82 has yet to be implemented),” observed Thevesh.

However, the big question for the number genius is “the extent to which all of this will trigger an early GE16 (16th General Election)”.

“To be perfectly honest – as a regular voter – I feel like the BN-PH alliance is a ticking time bomb that can blow any day,” he envisages.

“The  political temperature has definitely been rising and I think the results of Johor++ will only make things worse. We live in interesting times as the old Chinese curse goes.”

Former grassroot PKR loyalist Afral Abdullah reckoned that a three-cornered state polls would serve as indicators of public sentiment toward Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Madani government, hence “potentially influence voting trends in GE16”.

“There is growing speculation that after GE16, BN could work with GPS (Gabungan Parti Sarawak), PAS and other parties to form the (Federal) government if no coalition secures the 112 seats needed for a simple majority,” revealed the staunch backer of former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli.

“In such a scenario, PH and Bersatu are likely to be left out of the equation.”

If BN wins more seats than PAS – even by a single seat – Afral expects UMNO being “the one taking the lead in talks to form the next government”.

“With GPS likely to side with BN, PAS might then be needed to help make up the numbers for a simple majority,” he contended.

“But if PAS wins more seats than BN, the situation could be reversed. PAS would likely take the lead in seeking partners while BN and GPS could become the numbers needed to form a government.”

Be forewarned that if the above scenario pans out in GE16, PH could find itself under deep water.

“BN, PAS and GPS are seen as unfriendly toward DAP and even Amanah is hard to accept, especially by PAS,” observed Afral who is now a BERSAMA member.

“Therefore, if those three parties join forces to form a unity government, it’s highly likely that no PH component party will get a place.”

As for the prospect of the newly revived Rafizi-led BERSAMA, Afral who is busy rallying behind the party has this to say:

“Many believe that the #Bersama party is still not capable of becoming a major party able to win GE16 on its own given that it was just launched and with time constraints, preparations and readiness levels, may not yet have reached maximum.

GE17 is seen as more realistic for the #Bersama party to go further in Malaysian  politics.” –  Focus Malaysia