Will Anwar doom Harapan in Johor if snap GE not called?

 

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim may risk Pakatan Harapan getting trampled by BN in Johor if he does not call for a snap federal election to coincide with the state polls.

Voting patterns from the past several elections - including the six state polls in 2023 - have made it clear that by-elections and state elections held separately from federal polls generally have a lower turnout.

If this holds true in the upcoming Johor polls, then a repeat of the 2022 state election, where Harapan lost significant ground, is likely.

In the March 2022 state election, BN won a whopping 40 out of 56 seats, or 71.4 percent, despite bagging just 43.1 percent of votes, while DAP, Amanah, and PKR lost 15 seats in total.

These gains were reversed in the November 2022 general election when Harapan voters returned and came out in force - helping the coalition win more than half of the Parliament seats in the state.

A look at election data showed that between March 2022 and November 2022, BN voters remained relatively constant at around 599,000.

Meanwhile, Harapan voters jumped from 367,000 in the state election to 825,000 in the federal polls. Perikatan Nasional also experienced a significant surge in voter numbers during the general election.

This pattern is likely to repeat itself if snap general elections are not called.

Harapan is arguably in even more danger now compared to March 2022 due to growing disenfranchisement of its non-Malay and progressive Malay voter base, compounded by the emerging threat of PKR-splinter party Bersama.

‘Seize the moment’

However, some in Johor Harapan are optimistic.

Pasir Gudang MP Hassan Abdul Karim and Johor Amanah committee member Fadhli Umar Aminolhuda separately told Malaysiakini that the low turnout in March 2022 was due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which is no longer an issue now.

Pasir Gudang MP Hassan Abdul Karim

Both expressed confidence that with the right strategy, Harapan could encourage voters to come out in droves.

However, Hassan opined that it would be better if Anwar called for a general election to coincide with state polls - assuming the prime minister is ready.

“Seize the moment, seize the initiative,” he said.

He added that the Madani federal government has contributed significantly to Johor’s economic growth, so much so that an all-night ceramah would not be enough to cover everything Putrajaya under Anwar has done for the state.

Is Harapan ready?

Likewise, political analyst Syaza Shukri believes a snap federal election held now would best serve Harapan by eroding BN’s chances in Johor and possibly even in Malacca.

However, she said the question is whether Harapan is prepared for a nationwide contest.

“They say they’re prepared, but I think Anwar would prefer some more time to get things in order both administratively and in his party.

“But the longer he waits, he’s also giving PN more opportunity to solve their issues, and the global crisis continues to affect our fiscal health. 

“So, taking all into consideration, I would say having a snap general election now might be best and as a way to prove to BN - even just rhetorically - that Harapan is ready and in a good position. 

“The messaging is already half the battle,” the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political science associate professor told Malaysiakini.

Anwar had said two weeks ago during the Harapan convention that he would meet coalition leaders to discuss the possibility of snap polls.

However, yesterday, the prime minister said the current focus is on work. - Mkini