ANALYSIS | It might take more than an alliance between the two largest Malay-Muslim political parties to carry the opposition past the finishing line in the 15th general election (GE15).
Umno and PAS signed their much-awaited “Piagam Muafakat Nasional” (National Cooperation Charter) yesterday, formalising their pact after months of informal cooperation.
Among other things, the charter outlined a commitment by the former foes to an Islamic, Malay and bumiputera agenda.
The move is largely seen as a way to endear themselves to conservative Malay voters in the lead- up to GE15, but observers say relying on Malay votes alone will not win one a general election.
For one, the pact is likely to spook any remaining non-Malay support the opposition has, said Universiti Utara Malaysia political science professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani.
“The reality is that without the support of all Malaysians from all races, they cannot succeed. Depending on Malay votes (alone) won’t get them to Putrajaya.
“[...] (But) non-Malays, including those in Sabah and Sarawak, will distance themselves from the Umno-PAS pact,” he predicted.
The pact could even alienate it from some of Umno’s own supporters in Sabah, said University Malaysia Sarawak academic Arnold Puyok.
“They may be pressured to re-think their position in Umno as PAS’ ideology is widely seen as incompatible with the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63),” he told Malaysiakini.
Voters are fundamentally worried that this marriage of conservative forces will push politics farther to the right and divide society, said University of Tasmania’s James Chin.
“Umno and PAS are telling all Malaysians this country belongs to the Malays and Muslims, there is no space for you if you are non-Malay or non- Muslim.
“It is a sad day for those who wish to see a progressive, modern and multi-racial Malaysia,” he said.
Before yesterday’s charter-signing ceremony, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi promised that Umno and PAS will not resort to “narrow racial politics” or “extremist” religious beliefs.
He repeatedly stressed that they will ensure stability and look out for the needs of all Malaysians regardless of ethnicity or religion.
Chin expected these assurances to do little in convincing non-Malay voters.
“Ahmad Zahid can say whatever they want but non-Malays can see this for what it is - a call for Ketuanan Melayu Islam (Malay Islam superiority),” he said.
Better if PAS joins BN
The pact could widen its appeal if PAS were to join BN and campaign under the ‘dacing’ logo alongside coalition partners MCA and MIC in GE15.
Even so, MCA and MIC were all but obliterated in the last general election with just two seats between them.
Umno and PAS could alternatively form a new multi-racial front but they will sorely need the support of Sabahan and Sarawakian parties, said think-tank Ilham Centre CEO Mohd Azlan Zainal.
“If the pact only comprises Umno and PAS, they could win several more states like Kedah, Perak and maybe another state (in GE15) but it will be hard to take control of Malaysia.
“[...] However, if they fulfil the elements mentioned above and rebrand their charter, they will give Pakatan Harapan a run for its money. They could even potentially win Putrajaya,” he predicted.
MCA and MIC leaders have voiced support for the Umno-PAS pact on condition the struggle respects multi-culturalism and is in line with the Federal Constitution.
However, Sarawak ruling coalition Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), which comprises former BN allies, has distanced itself from the alliance and said it prefers to stand on its own.
PAS most to gain
Ultimately, observers see the pact as a marriage of political expediency with PAS having the most to gain.
Umno needs to cleanse its image, marred from the many corruption scandals involving its leaders, but Mohd Azlan said PAS will be able to capitalise on the former ruling party’s deep pockets and grassroot networks.
For Chin, the alliance will serve to strengthen the Islamist party.
“PAS knows it cannot win alone; now its biggest competitor is helping it to take power. It will also force Umno to adopt its version of Negara Islam,” he said.
Mohd Azizuddin believes convincing their respective grassroots members to set aside their once-bitter rivalry will be a challenge but the parties now have few alternatives.
“I think PAS will gain more because Umno is stronger. Actually, PAS wants Umno more than Umno wants PAS. But because both are in the opposition, they have no choice but to collaborate,” he said.
Seat negotiations will pose another challenge.
Umno and PAS have yet to announce their stance on this but Mohd Azizuddin expects many disappointments if they plan to challenge Harapan head-on for Malay votes.
“They will have to ensure two-cornered fights with Harapan. The negotiations and decisions may disappoint many people if the distributions are not being carried out properly,” he said.
In the interim, Mohd Azlan suggested that Umno and PAS form coalition governments in the four states they presently govern - Pahang, Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu.
Not only would this give voters more confidence in their pact, it would also serve as a trial run for the future.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang has already hinted at the possibility of this.
“There are definitely plans, (Umno) is in our family,” he said yesterday in response to a question on whether PAS plans to include Umno in the Kelatantan and Terengganu governments. - Mkini
Sure or not? Have you been talking to the so called 'stakeholders'?
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