Prospect of over 40 seats via PN pact not enough for Umno, says analyst

UTM's Mazlan Ali says Umno, PAS and Bersatu would vie for the same seats, and questions how many the two PN components would be willing to give up to Umno.

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi floated his Malay unity plan at the party’s general assembly last week, but analysts say a PN-BN alliance may not favour the party.

PETALING JAYA:

 Umno may not be sufficiently enticed to work with Perikatan Nasional at the next general election (GE16) if the partnership offers the party only 40 seats in the Dewan Rakyat.

Although it has 25 seats presently, Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the party would get the opportunity to vie for many more constituencies if Barisan Nasional maintains its alliance with Pakatan Harapan.

He explained that the BN linchpin, much like PAS and Bersatu, was inclined to contest Malay-majority seats, casting doubt on how many constituencies the two PN components might be willing to concede in electoral negotiations.

“I believe BN may be more confident about cooperating with PH because Umno would have the opportunity to contest more Malay seats and gain stable support in the west coast and southern Peninsular Malaysia, which have a greater number of parliamentary seats.

“The reality is Umno wants more than 40 seats. Honestly, I would say that Umno may even want to attain hegemony again with 80 seats,” he told FMT.

On Jan 20, PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari said Umno could win more than 40 parliamentary seats if it pursued the proposed “grand coalition” or “Rumah Bangsa” initiative with PN.

Fadhli was commenting after Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi floated his Malay unity plan at the party’s general assembly last week, seemingly following talks with PAS and Bersatu leaders. However, Zahid insisted that the party had no intention of toppling the present unity government.

Likewise, Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan does not expect Umno to be overly taken in by Ahmad Fadhli’s remarks, stressing that the party was not “so gullible”.

Despite this, he said Umno was more likely to benefit from vote transferability from PN than from PH, given PH supporters’ reluctance to support BN in previous elections despite the two coalitions’ alliance.

“For PN supporters, although it has not been tested, theoretically, I believe that the transfer of votes will happen,” he said.

With Zahid keeping his cards close to his chest, Azmi expects the party to reveal its chosen GE16 partners only after Parliament is dissolved.

He said BN will likely seek to avoid three-cornered fights to prevent splitting the votes.

Azmi warned that PH would be compelled to recalibrate its strategy if Umno were to align with PN in line with Zahid’s Malay unity agenda. - FMT