Umno stands to lose if it quits unity govt, says analyst

Hisommudin Bakar of Ilham Centre says the party is clearly not prepared to face a snap general election at this time.

Umno Youth members at a special convention in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday to discuss Umno’s position in the unity government. (Umno Online Facebook pic)

PETALING JAYA:

 Umno stands to lose if it were to quit the unity government and calls to do so, expected to become louder in coming weeks, are unlikely to bring about any big changes, says an analyst.

Hisommudin Bakar, executive director of the Ilham Centre think tank, said it would be irrational for Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to entertain such calls.

Hisommudin Bakar.

He said Umno is clearly not prepared to face a snap general election at this juncture, especially with elections expected this year and early next year to the Melaka and Johor state assemblies.

Umno’s machinery was weak and any move to revive the Muafakat Nasional electoral pact forged with PAS in 2019 would further weaken the party, Hisommudin said.

“The Perlis political crisis and PAS’s dominance in Perikatan Nasional have proven that it would be difficult for Umno to go to the negotiating table from a weak position,” he told FMT.

Hisomuddin said that if MN is indeed revived it would see Malay seats divided among Umno and PAS. However, if Umno remained with Pakatan Harapan, they would be allocated the majority of the Malay seats at the next general election.

“This would mean they would have a greater chance to wrest seats from PAS and Bersatu,” he said.

Hisomuddin said that while the rhetoric for Umno to leave the unity government would grow louder as the party’s general assembly approaches, it would not lead anywhere.

The Umno leadership understood that leaving the unity government would put them between a rock and hard place. “They either play second fiddle to PAS in the opposition coalition or risk being marginalised. Both are uninspired choices.”

The calls to quit the federal government would fizzle out once the political realities are factored in by the leadership, he said.

However, Zahid would need to pay serious attention to Umno Youth’s call as it could put him under pressure if grassroots members were on the same page as Akmal, said Hisommudin.

Yesterday, Akmal called for Umno to withdraw support from the unity government and go into the opposition, citing repeated violations of “red lines” involving Islam, the Malay community, and the monarchy. - FMT