If there is no clear signal from the Jackson Hole Symposium, the ringgit is expected to appreciate gradually, supported by a stable global risk appetite and favourable foreign exchange conditions, says an analyst.
At 6pm, the ringgit rose to 4.0230/4.0270 against the US dollar from Thursday’s close of 4.0305/4.0350.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Afzanizam Rashid said traders would closely monitor Warsh’s speech for clues to the Fed’s policy direction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from Sept 15-16.
“We sense that the Fed chairman will stick to the storyline of keeping its official mandates of price stability and maximum employment as its top priorities, leaving the future path of interest rates unclear,” he told Bernama.
The Jackson Hole symposium, which runs from Aug 27-29, is closely watched by investors for clues on the Fed’s next move on interest rates. Any signal of a shift towards rate cuts could weigh on the US dollar and provide support for the ringgit.
Meanwhile, Quintex Intel global strategist Stephen Innes said foreign exchange (FX) traders remained uncertain about what Warsh would say at the symposium.
“My view, however, is that nothing particularly material will come out of tonight’s event.
“If that proves correct, I would expect the ringgit to gradually appreciate, supported by benign foreign exchange trading conditions and relatively stable global risk appetite,” he said.
Innes said Jackson Hole had a reputation for generating headlines, but historically became a major FX event only when the Fed chair delivered a clear policy signal against an already uncertain market backdrop.
“Those conditions appear to be in place this year, which explains why traders are reluctant to take strong directional positions ahead of Warsh’s remarks,” he added.
Against a basket of major currencies, the ringgit gained against the Japanese yen to 2.5193/2.5219 from 2.5274/2.5304 at Thursday’s close, strengthened against the British pound to 5.4632/5.4687 from 5.4714/5.4775 and appreciated against the euro to 4.6828/4.6874 from 4.6919/4.6971.
The local currency also traded mostly higher against regional currencies.
It advanced against the Singapore dollar to 3.1652/3.1686 from 3.1686/3.1724 on Thursday, strengthened against the Philippine peso to 6.46/6.47 from 6.51/6.53 and rose against the Thai baht to 12.2087/12.2253 from 12.2534/12.2715.
However, the ringgit slipped against the Indonesian rupiah to 227.3/227.7 from 227.1/227.5 previously. - FMT
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