Can surveys really tell how Malays will vote?

It's pertinent to consider the psyche of the respondents in judging the reliability of opinion polls.

COMMENT

How a person answers survey questions depends much on his background and may not reflect his true thinking.

Many research firms and political parties have conducted nationwide polls to try to see how the 14th general election will turn out. But how reliable are their findings?

To answer that question, one of the most pertinent factors to consider is the psyche of the Malays, who make up the majority of voters, particularly in the rural areas of Peninsular Malaysia. There’s no doubt that the election results in those areas will be crucial.

In 1968, the late Syed Hussein Alatas, a sociologist, argued that remnants of feudalism remained with the Malays even after Malaysia became independent from Britain.

It’s hard to say whether his thesis still holds today, but if it does, one can assume that the average Malay doesn’t like to appear contrarian, especially to those perceived to have some form of power. Would this affect the way he answers questions from a researcher?

Imagine you are a such a Malay, born and raised, say, in a kampung in Jerantut. You get a call from someone who says he’s from a research body in Kuala Lumpur called Invoke.

You probably remember reading about Invoke and something about it being tied to PKR. The caller then hits you with this question: “Which party will you vote for?”

It is more than likely that you would say you are voting for the opposition, even if that’s not true. It’s not that you like to lie. Rather, you want to make the caller feel comfortable with you.

Now, imagine Invoke calling thousands of other Malays like you. How would that affect the survey results?

And perhaps it’s not just the rural Malays who would answer in such a way. Many urban Malays still have attachments to their hometowns in the more rural parts of the country. For every festival holiday, they go back in droves to their kampungs in Kulim, Rembau or Kota Bharu.

If such an urban Malay were to get a call from the Gombak Setia assemblyman’s office asking him about PAS’ performance over the years, wouldn’t it be safe to assume that he would act in the same manner that the Malay from Jerantut does?

And what about the Chinese and Indian communities? Would it be safe to bet that even the Chinese and Indians living in places like Terengganu and Kelantan would have the same attitude? What about the natives in East Malaysia?

The fact is that we can make only calculated guesses at how Malaysians will vote in GE14. But when the votes have been counted on May 9, we’ll know for sure. -FMT