Financial Times expects BN to win amid signs of growing Malay disquiet

GE14 | Research group FT Confidential Research (FTCR) has predicted BN will retain its grip on power in the May 9 general election although Malay support for Pakatan Harapan is rising.

FTCR, the research arm of London-based Financial Times, said it found evidence of palpable Malay dissatisfaction with caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak and his administration.

The firm's senior researcher Hafiz Noor Shams said FCTR’s April survey in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and northern Perak - all Malay heartlands - also showed disquiet over economic conditions.

“(The survey) showed that slightly more than half of the 252 respondents had a negative view of current economic conditions, while less than a quarter said they were happy.

“When asked about the state of politics in the north, half said they were unhappy with the current situation compared with slightly less than a quarter who said otherwise.

“This is against a backdrop of well-attended political rallies held by Harapan in Malay-majority rural areas,” he wrote.

Low approval rating for Najib

Moreover, a first-quarter survey of 1,000 urban respondents across Malaysia, showed that Najib’s approval rating remained low while many were receptive of the idea of Dr Mahathir Mohamad returning as prime minister.

However, the FTCR said one of the reasons why it thought BN and Najib would return to power was because of the redrawn electoral boundaries.

The report said the move helped the ruling coalition by redistributing Malay voters to marginal seats, primarily in the suburbs, while “packing” other ethnic groups into urban opposition strongholds.

“The strategy will only work if the level of Malay support remains where it was in 2013. A large Malay swing towards Harapan would complicate BN’s effort to increase its majority.

“It is hard to judge the scale of the coming swing, which opposition figures are calling a ‘Malay tsunami’,” read the report.

Harapan might raise deficit

In 2013, BN won 60 percent of the parliamentary seats despite winning just 47 percent of the popular vote, which exemplified how gerrymandering was designed to help BN win.

Should Harapan form the next federal government, FTCR expected the new government to jettison the current administration's goal to reach a balanced budget by 2023 and incur a higher deficit.

The report noted that Harapan sought to abolish GST within 100 days, which FTCR projected would result in a fiscal deficit of 2.9 to 3 percent of the GDP, against Najib’s target of cutting the 2018 deficit down to 2.8 percent from three percent last year.

Harapan’s promise to share federal tax revenues with the states and reintroduce fuel subsidies would also push up the deficit, said the report.

“However, even if the opposition was to spring a significant surprise, such measures would take time and likely come into effect in 2019 at the earliest,” read the report. - Mkini