‘HIS GRAVE IS READY, WE ONLY NEED TO PERFORM THE PRAYERS’: T’GANU TO GET A NEW MB? RAZIF MAY ONLY GET FEDERAL SEAT BUT STATE UMNO SET FOR BIGGER WIN AS PAS ‘WON’T BE GOING ALL OUT’ – REPORT

KUALA TERENGGANU, 4 Ogos -- Menteri Besar Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman yakin UMNO Terengganu bersedia menghadapi Pilihan Raya Negeri berikutan krisis politik negeri, ketika menjawab soalan media selepas merasmikan Hari Koperasi Negara hari ini.?-- fotoBERNAMA (2016) HAK CIPTA TERPELIHARA

KUALA TERENGGANU — Barisan Nasional (BN) is confident that it can win between 25 and 28 state seats in Terengganu this election, up from its previous 17, Umno sources said.

However, history seems to repeat itself when it comes to the state’s highest political post as it is not certain that Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman can keep his position.

Since the state fell to PAS in 1999 (BN regained the state in 2004), all mentris besar here have only held the position for one term.

But unlike Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh and Datuk Seri Ahmad Said who were replaced after the elections, the question of whether Razif will go is being raised now.

Unlike his two predecessors, Razif, who first became a candidate in 2008, has never led an election campaign before. Even the experienced Ahmad Said failed to hold back the PAS tide back in 2013.

PAS increased its seat tally from eight in 2008 to 14 in 2013. Together with one seat from PKR, the Opposition currently has 15 seats in the 32-seat state legislative assembly, compared to BN’s 17.

Rumours among Umno’s top leadership have it that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s political secretary, Datuk Jailani Ngah, is set to be Razif’s replacement.

Jailani, who has an Islamic education background, is expected to contest in the Bukit Rakit seat.

Sources told Malay Mail’s sister site ProjekMMO that Razif “will be contesting in a parliamentary seat” in the 14th general election.

Razif’s sudden appointment back in 2014 to replace Ahmad was not very popular and had triggered a political crisis when Ahmad and another assemblyman briefly quit Umno, leaving a hung assembly.

Despite the slight hiccup, Umno sources in the Kuala Nerus parliamentary constituency said BN is still confident of taking between 25 and 28 seats in the 14th general election, an increase of at least another eight state seats.

However, they were reluctant to reveal the party’s strategies to achieve this goal, stating only that friendly candidates and an efficient electoral machinery will secure a BN win.

Candidates must be close to the grassroots and be easy to deal with, they said. They cannot be show–offs and they must be clean, religious and generous.

“Our people (the machinery) will be in high spirits and will work hard if the candidate is molek (good and/or suitable),” said one source.

In fact, the ruling coalition’s election slogan launched recently by Razif is: Terengganu molek doh (Terengganu is already doing well).

Apparently BN is confident it can take down PAS in Kuala Nerus and regain the three state seats that their Islamist rival won with a majority of less than 700 votes.

BN lost parliamentary seat Kuala Nerus with a slim majority of 610 votes, besides losing state seats Tepuh (229 votes), Teluk Pasu (109 votes) and Bukit Tunggal (652 votes) in the last election.

BN also lost five state seats with less than a 1,000-vote majority including Rantau Abang (141 votes). Barring PAS’ stronghold in Manir (558 votes), BN has at one time held the other state seats.

Generally, BN tends to win in style, holding a comfortable majority of roughly 1,500 votes, except for state seats Kuala Berang (449 votes), Jabi (782 votes) and Jertih (930 votes).

Just like Manir, BN’s stronghold of Kemasik (889-vote majority) has never fallen into the hands of the Opposition, not even at the height of the Reformasi movement in 1999.

Sources within PAS and Umno said Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) is not creating any waves or serious impact in Terengganu, just like when PKR first rose in 1999.

Parti Melayu Semangat 46, which was an Umno splinter party in 1990, also failed to make a dent when it only won two seats: Bukit Tunggal (237-vote majority) and Tanggul (now Ajil with a 16-vote majority). The party failed to defend both seats in 1995.

The split in Umno only served to benefit its traditional rival PAS, especially when Umno rejected its own Mentri Besar Tan Sri Wan Mokhtar Wan Ahmad circa the early 1990s.

On top of the national crisis which saw then Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s sacking, PAS and PKR managed to command 28 seats in 1999, a situation that is unlikely to repeat itself.

In 1999, PKR only managed to secure the Bandar state constituency with a slim majority of 551 votes, but due to the Opposition’s unity in 2013, it held the seat with a whopping 2,519-vote majority.

However, the Umno Kuala Nerus source admits that the entry of former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has caused a stir among the support of some Umno veterans.

“But I have intelligence from government servants that the situation is OK [for BN],” the source said.

For the first time since 1990 (with the exception of 2013) BN is facing a fractured Opposition. PAS refuses to work together with its splinter party Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) and Dr Mahathir’s PPBM.

However, just like other states, Razif’s administration has not been exempted from its own internal conflicts.

A few small time traders vented their frustrations to ProjekMMO and accused BN of not delivering assistance, including the Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) cash aid, to them.

“I used to receive it… They said they are going to check, but it’s been three years [since I last received it],” said Zakani Yajid, who is a 54-year-old keropok trader.

“I used to support BN but now I don’t know who I will cast my ballot for. It’s still a 50-50 consideration for me.”

Another trader at a food court in Pantai Batu Burok voiced his disappointment with the Mentri Besar’s “interference” in allowing hawker stalls to conduct business along the famous beach.

“Why is he interfering? Last time they were not allowed to trade on the Batu Burok sidewalk (kaki lima). What about now?” questioned the 52-year-old trader.

He said he was aware of the rumours of Razif’s replacement, including the strained relationship between the Mentri Besar and the palace.

This speculation became widespread after Razif had his Datuk Seri title revoked in April 2016, before it was conferred again a few months later.

“In Kuala Terengganu [BN’s hope for victory] is very slim. This time the MB is kicked out… his grave is ready, we only need to perform the prayers,” he said.

PAS (now Amanah) won the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat with a tremendous majority of 10,785 votes and also took home all four state seats with more than a 2,000-vote majority, except for Ladang (924 votes).

PAS icon Mohamad Sabu, who is now Amanah president, lost Kuala Terengganu in 2008 with a slim majority of 628 votes. PAS took over the seat in the 2009 by-election by 2,631 votes.

Just like at national level, Terengganu Umno is fortunate that PAS is not going all out against the party unlike previous elections.

PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang’s private member’s Bill to amend the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 (known as RUU355) has placated many locals in the state.

This situation might be a blessing for BN to strengthen its presence, regardless of who will be at the helm.

Increased development in Kuala Nerus, which has been declared a new district and the state’s administrative centre, will benefit Umno, Razif and the constituency.

MALAY MAIL