If Najib wins big, an era of more repression awaits: US thinktank

GE14 | US thinktank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has predicted a more “repressive” Malaysia should caretaker prime minister Najib Abdul Razak and BN win again in the upcoming general election.

“If Najib and his coalition win the election – and especially if they win by a considerable amount – they are likely to usher in an era of a much more repressive Malaysia.

“Najib has wielded power repressively in his current term, but in another term he could well try to turn Malaysia in a direction closer to Turkey or other more personalised authoritarian states,” Joshua Kurlantzick, CFR's senior fellow for Southeast Asia said in a blog post.

Despite this, Kurlantzick believes that a massive victory by BN would not necessarily lead to a further empowerment of conservative and Islamist groups in Malaysia.

“If Najib scores a large victory, PAS will be less equipped to extract concessions from the new government.

“However, if Najib does not win big, and PAS' split of the opposition is a major factor in Najib’s win, PAS and its Islamist allies will be poised to make sizable demands on the government.”

Kurlantzick also noted that it would be a major upset if the opposition coalition led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad wins the election this time around, especially with Pakatan Harapan de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim still imprisoned.

Despite the opposition having made gains in 2013, the public discontent with the 1MDB scandal, other allegations of corruption involving the government, as well as high living costs, Kurlantzick said Najib and BN are still likely to win.

“Mahathir remains distrusted by some in the opposition, and he does not have the ability to galvanise the broad opposition coalition the way that Anwar had.

“The Najib government has dished out a massive pre-election budget, which is a norm in Malaysia, to appeal to voters.

“Under new election regulations, many districts are even more gerrymandered than in past year, further diluting the power of urban voters, who tend to support the opposition.

“And Najib’s parliament recently passed a law against 'fake news' designed to further chill political discourse in Malaysia, a country where Najib has already overseen significant crackdowns on expression over the past five years.”

The states of Sabah and Sarawak, he added, will once again play a critical role in the election.

“In the past, they have been virtual vote banks for the ruling coalition, and the opposition has failed to make much headway in either of these states.

“For Sabah and Sarawak’s reliability, the governing coalition has lavished money and political power on these two states located on the island of Borneo.”

Polling day is set to occur on May 9, a Wednesday.

The announcement by the EC had caused an uproar, with many questioning the decision to hold the election on a working day.

Many believe that the move was intended to ensure that there would be a lower voter turnout, which would benefit BN. - Mkini