Putin Soft Pedals Final Assault On Idlib

Two weeks ago the Middle East was expecting an imminent attack against the remaining rebel stronghold in Idlib, Syria. Reports said there were up to 70,000 Al Qaeda and other fighters holed up in Idlib. The attack was supposed to come from the Russians, the Assad regime and Iran backed groups. It was forecast that the final battle for Idlib would create a massive exodus of refugees across the border into Turkey.

Two weeks have passed and  the expected attack has not happened. The numbers of Al Qaeda and other rebel fighters has also dwindled to just 10,000 - which is a small number compared to the scale of the conflict in Syria. Here is some news:

WHY IDLIB IS A PENDING NIGHTMARE

Bottom Line Up Front:

* 10,000 al-Qaeda affiliated fighters, families, remaining in Idlib 

* intermingled with 2.9 million people 

 trapped in Idlib with no other sanctuary to escape

* violent extremists present humanitarian nightmare

* military offensive in Idlib catastrophe for non-combatants

Idlib has terrorist problem

assault will create immense humanitarian disaster 

10,000 al-Qaeda affiliated fighters and family in Idlib 

assault will remove significant number of al-Qaeda-linked terrorists 

My comments :  Two weeks ago the numbers were much higher - up to 70,000 Al Qaeda. Putin has reduced that number to 10,000 (UN estimate) without sending in a single tank.

It may well be that the Al Qaeda fighters will all leave Idlib without a fight. I believe this is the result of a deal struck between Putin, Erdogan and Rouhanie Abbas in Teheran on 7th September.  

Turkey does not provide food and ammunition to the Al Qaeda fighters and the fighters quietly slip over the border into Turkey.  A  major humanitarian catastrophe is avoided and Turkey is saved the problem of hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming over the border.

Whatever the politics, let us hope peace comes to the people of Syria. I dont think they even know what they are really fighting over. Its just a terrible waste of time and life.