UKRAINE IRAN HORSE TRADING?

 

On August 27–28, 2026 (yesterday), Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, the Vatican’s Secretary for Relations with States (effectively the Holy See’s foreign minister), concluded a quick visit to Moscow. He met Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and made a plea for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Nothing came out of his diplomacy because the Russians have not heard anything new.

This is just a day after John Ratcliff the director of the CIA also made a day trip to Moscow.  Ratcliff is said to have had a total of about six hours of discussions with his Russian counterpart. Again the CIA director was angling for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Again the discussions about ceasefires came to nought.  

However a total of six hours discussion suggests marathon sessions. It is most likely that other matters were also discussed - including the war in Iran. I think some horses have been traded. This and that for the Russians in Ukraine and that and this for the US in Iran.  

The Russians have the absolute upper hand in Ukraine. The frontlines are collapsing in the face of Russian advances - which are slow and unstoppable. The Odessa port complex is totally shut down. Ukraine cannot import or export anything through the Black Sea. That is why the EU, NATO and the Deep State are panicking and despatching these envoys to Moscow. 

In Iran the US has the absolute upper hand. Iranian fuel supplies (refined petroleum) are down to a week or two. The entire Iranian coastline is shut down. Iran's access to the US Dollar trade and to crypto-currency has also been cut off. 

The US Navy maintains a 20-ship U.S. Navy battle group as part of Project Freedom  right inside the Straits of Hormuz and oil tankers are entering and exiting the Straits. The U.S. military has established a controlled shipping corridor along the Omani side of the Strait and has been helping tankers move through, often at night and with military surveillance/air cover. Axios reports that the U.S. operation has been running for roughly two months and has significantly restored traffic. About 8 million bpd of oil are transiting Hormuz on a daily basis. Which has helped push down oil prices again.

To avoid being detected by hostile radar many oil tankers are turning off their transponders and sailing 'ghost'.  This reduces the count of oil tankers that are moving through the Straits.  So the actual numbers could be higher. 

If the price of oil keeps moving down it makes the Straits of Hormuz not relevant as a bargaining chip for the Iranian regime. Lower oil prices means less of a problem for the rest of the world. If oil drops to US$80 per barrel (it is at US$84 now) or goes below US$80  it means  things are back to normal (almost) for world energy markets. 

But the regime is still facing serious collapse from within. The problems facing the Iranian regime are being compounded. Regardless of the Straits of Hormuz they are facing extinction.  

The bigger issue is Ukraine. If the Ukraine issue is solved Europe will breathe again - especially the really dumb ass Germans. German industry can move again. Wheat production (both Ukraine and Russian) should return to normal. Russian fertiliser will be available again in large quantities. Food prices all over the world will come down.

Plus the friendly thaw between China and the US - the civilised world can look forward to prosperity. Except the uncivilised world. The uncivilised world will continue burning down to the ground. Their funeral pyres have not reached anywhere close to their peak.   More death and destruction is on the way for them.

 The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.