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Wednesday, November 8, 2017

The Night of the Long Knives in Saudi Arabia, Civil War and Donald Trump's Intriguing "Calm Before The Storm"

In 2009 Obama made his famous address to the Arab world in Cairo. Obama spoke of a "new beginning". 




Two years later in 2011 the Arab Spring broke out.  
The Middle East has since been practically destroyed.

Then on October 5th this year after a meeting with the entire American military chiefs Donald Trump spoke of a 'calm before the storm'. 





Now the Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (aka MBS) has unleashed a purge in Saudi Arabia, arresting dozens of the most powerful and influential figures in that country.  

Just days before the purge, Jared Kushner who is Trump's son-in-law and his top Middle East Advisor had visited Saudi Arabia.   The talk is that Kushner was bringing intelligence about a coup de etat that was being planned against MBS and his father King Salman,

The purge is a direct result of that intelligence provided by the USA.  MBS is just pre-empting a coup de etat.

Here is the Asia Times :





King Salman devises high-powered “anti-corruption” commission 
appoints his son, Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, a.k.a. MBS, as chairman.

  • detains 11 House of Saud princes
  • four current ministers 
  • dozens of former princes/cabinet secretaries 
  • Hefty bank accounts frozen, private jets are grounded. 
  • high-profile lot “jailed” at Riyadh Ritz-Carlton.

War within House of Saud, Asia Times anticipated back in July. 
Rumors swirling for months about coup against MBS 
what just happened is MBS pre-emptive coup

 
top Middle East source offers much-needed perspective
This is more serious than it appears. 
arrest of two sons of King Abdullah, Princes Miteb, Turki fatal mistake. 
endangers King Salman himself. 
only regard for King that protected MBS. 
army against MBS,  enraged at arrest of their commanders

To say Saudi Army in uproar is understatement. 
He’d have to arrest the whole army before he could feel secure

Prince Miteb serious contender to Saudi throne. 
highest profile detainee is billionaire Prince Talal

MBS controls all internal media (and appointment of governorships). 

So how did we get here?

secrets behind the purge

story starts with secret deliberations in 2014 
about “removal” of then King Abdullah. 
dissolution of royal family would lead to breaking of tribal loyalties 
country splitting into three parts. 

decision to get rid of Prince Bandar bin Sultan 
then actively coddling Salafi-jihadis in Syria 
control of security with Mohammed bin Nayef.

succession of Abdullah proceeded smoothly. 
Power shared between three main clans: 
King Salman (and his beloved son MBS)
son of Prince Nayef (the other Prince Mohammed)
and son of dead king (Prince Miteb, commander of National Guard). 
Salman let MBS run the show.

And, in practice, blunders also followed. The House of Saud lost its lethal regime-change drive in Syria and is bogged down in an unwinnable war on Yemen, which on top of it prevents MBS from exploiting the Empty Quarter – the desert straddling both nations.

Saudi Treasury forced to borrow on international markets. 
MBS buying yacht for US$500m not going down particularly well
Hardcore political repression epitomized by decapitation of Sheikh Al-Nimr. 
Shi’ites in Eastern province rebelling 
also Sunni provinces in the west.

regime’s popularity radically tumbled down
MBS came up with Vision 2030. 
dissatisfaction was covered by royal payoffs to key princes to stay loyal 
retroactive payments on back wages to unruly masses.

Vision 2030 cannot possibly work 
where are new (skilled) workers to come from.

aversion to MBS never ceased to grow
three major royal family groups against present rulers
family of former King Abdullah
family of former King Fahd
family of former Crown Prince Nayef

Nayef – who replaced Bandar – extremely popular in Langley 
His arrest earlier this year angered CIA 
and quite a few factions of House of Saud 
interpreted as MBS power struggle.

MBS might have gotten away with arrest of CIA favorite Mohammed bin Nayef 
MBS has now crossed Rubicon,  he is no Caesar. 
CIA regards him as totally worthless

stability could return 
power sharing between Sudairis (without MBS) 
and Chamars (tribe of deceased King Abdullah). 

MBS isolated from power, entrusted to other Prince Mohammed (son of Nayef). 
Prince Miteb would conserve his position

MBS acted to prevent this outcome. 
There will be regime change in near future
may be a struggle emanating from military 
ruler may arise that is not friendly to United States

‘Moderate’ Salafi-jihadis, anyone?

Before purge, House of Saud’s spin centered on US$500b zone 
straddling Saudi, Jordan, Egypt, a Dubai replica 

MBS pulled another rabbit swearing future of Saudi is “simply reverting to what we followed – a moderate Islam open to the world and all religions.”

In a nutshell: a state that is private property of a royal family inimical to all principles of freedom of expression and religion, as well as all forms of Salafi-jihadism simply cannot metastasize into a “moderate” state just because MBS says so.

pile-up of purges, coups and countercoups shall be the norm

My comments: here is someone's listing of all the multi-billionaire's who have been arrested in Saudi Arabia. This is the single largest "group arrest" of multi billionaires anywhere, anytime in the world

Civil war started in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

1 :  11 Saudi princes and at least 4 cabinet ministers & 38 deputy ministers have been detained by orders of crown prince Muhammad bin Salman
 

2 :  Bakr Bin Laden, the oldest brother of Osama bin Laden and the chairman of the Binladin Group (construction) detained.
 

3 :  ALL private jets of the arrested princes + families (we're talking about dozens of jets) have been grounded per orders by Muhammad bin Salman.
 

4 :  Saudis arrested Prince Al Waleed bin Talal , the richest man in Saudi Wahabia with Bank assets (net worth 20 US billion dollars) have been frozen by order of Mohamed bin Salman
 

5 : Saudis arrested 'Sheikh Waleed bin Ibrahim al Ibrahim as well tonight the CEO of @mbcgroup having net worth 11 billion US dollars
 

6 : Saudis arrested two powerful sons of the late King Abdullah, including Mishaal bin Abdullah Al Saud
 

7 : Saudis detained : Khalid Tuwaijri the most powerful non princely Saudi
 

8 :Saudis arrested Saleh Abdullah Kamel, owner of ART TV Network, based in Jeddah locked up,  having net worth 3 billion US dollars
 

9 : Saudis arrested Ibrahim al Assaf, former Finance Minister of Saudi Arabia and current Minister of State he is almost 70 years old.
 

10 : Commander of the Saudi Navy Rear Admiral Abdullah al Sultan has been dismissed from duty.
 

11 : Muhammad bin Salman eliminated high ranking security officials (Navy, National Guard), Media Tycoons, Wealthy investors, Important CEOs of Saudi Companies etc

New York Times.
USA Today.


My comments : This is a tribal feud.  It has been going on since 1934 when Ibn Saud conquered the Hijaz and the Hadhramaut with British help and named it Saudi Arabia.

The US, the British, the Israelis and OutSyed The Box  are not manipulating anything. They are merely taking advantage of the Saudi bungling  - which they can read like a book.

Here is a comment at Asia Times about Jared Kushner's influence on MBS, which kicked off all these arrests :  



I am not surprised at all by the comment about how lowly the CIA thinks about MBS :

"CIA regards him as totally worthless"

A stupid camel jockey who can be bought with 10 cents worth of praise. 
But the whole damned lot are like that.

Saudi Arabia could be the next Libya. 
The situation there is still fluid. And extremely tense.
Lets see what the cat drags in tomorrow.


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