Dr M doesn't need ROS approval

After months of speculation, it is all ‘ready, steady, go’ for GE14. The prime minister (PM) announced the Dewan Rakyat is to be dissolved today paving the way for elections within 60 days i.e. by June 6. Given Ramadan is from mid-May, it is expected that the election will be held before that in the first or second week of the same month.

Two days before the incumbent administration takes the shape of a caretaker government during the election period, the Registry of Societies (ROS) Malaysia temporarily disbanded former PM Dr Mahathir Mohammad’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, the lead party of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition alliance.

ROS had earlier prevented Harapan from registering itself as an alliance and has now potentially deregistered Bersatu on technical grounds.

Dr M, Bersatu and Harapan’s nonagenarian leader appears to be in full steam and unfazed by the ROS decision. He told a press conference yesterday that Bersatu will challenge the decision with the government and courts, but if there is no remedy then leaders of the “party formerly called Bersatu” will contest either independently or on a Harapan component party symbol.

It is clear from Dr M’s confidence that he will not back off and he is going to go all out for GE14. It is unlikely Dr M will change his plans due to the ROS decision, but what might actually change are voter equations and sentiments after this eleventh-hour drama.

Given that Dr M and his party leaders will contest the election one way or another, now the question is whether the decision by ROS may backfire on the BN at a time when most opinion polls show it is losing ground to the Dr M-led Harapan.

Seeing Dr M’s press conference today, one could not but help admire his resolve by empathising with his struggles – and ordeal - at this age. After 22 years as the longest-serving PM of Malaysia, Dr M retired in 2003 with a successful legacy. At this age, he remains strong physically and mentally agile, but one would imagine he would rather be spending time with his grandchildren.

Instead, the former PM is back from retirement: he is protesting along road pavements, speaking in ceramah day and night, and tirelessly trying to bring the opposition together. Dr M really does not need to be PM again for himself at this age – this is about Malaysia and the rakyat for him. He has actually taken the role of David against Goliath by standing up for what he believes is right and just.

Institute Darul Ehsan’s opinion polls show Dr M’s popularity is at 61% compared to his rival Najib Abdul Razak at 39%. Dr M leads Malay, Chinese and Indian votes at 57%, 72% and 61% compared to 43%, 28% and 39% for his opponents.

It remains to be seen whether this will translate to a ‘tsunami’ on polling day, but these figures show that Dr M has a considerable sway over voters. So how will Dr M’s sizeable – and a majority – support base react to this decision by ROS?

Further swing in Malay voters? (or 'Treat Uncle Respectfully, Lah!')

If Asian, especially Malay, values are still about politeness and civility to the elderly, it is likely that the ROS decision will not be taken well. Malay voters may feel Dr M has been wronged, victimised for opposing the government and he does not deserve to be treated in this discourteous way.

If there is a sizeable number of Malay voters who feel like this, there could be a further swing of 5-10% in favour of Dr M and increase his lead further. Given how the redelineation has been configured along ethnic lines, even a small swing could potentially undermine BN prospects in many constituencies.

A larger turnout of Chinese and Indian voters? (“Cannot lose, must vote lah!”)
I think the Chinese and Indian voter preferences are more or less set now and there is unlikely to be any major swing before the election. However, the ROS decision may motivate a larger turnout from the previously “undi rosak”or “not sure if I will vote, lah” voters who would be aggrieved by the perceived bias against Dr M.

The ROS decision has, perhaps unwittingly, set the fault line and upped the ante for GE14 for both sides. For many voters of all races, this ROS decision may be a sign of things to come. They may wonder if Dr M is treated like this, what will happen to others?

The changing situation and already high stakes will likely compel some reluctant voters to feel they cannot afford to waste their votes this time around. It may not be a perfect change, but this is the only opportunity for some change for the better future of Malaysia.

At the end of the day, the fact is Dr M is a larger-than-life figure. It may sound like a cliché, but Dr M is really an ‘institution’ himself – he is his own brand and his own icon who does not need a name, symbol or banner of a political party for his identity.

For most voters, it is not Dr M of Bersatu or Harapan but Dr M of the ‘good ol' days’ who makes them nostalgic for his time of relative stability, harmony and growth. So it is really immaterial whether he has an election symbol or not.

For many voters, Dr M is remembered as the leader who gave Malaysia its deserved stature internationally and made headlines for the right (and not wrong) reasons. Yes, he may have presided over a system that left more to be desired in the long-run, but by all accounts, he did not seek to benefit from it himself.

It is not surprising many voters feel Dr M may be the only one who can really set things right by bringing the rakyat together and completing his unfinished tasks of a ‘Bangsa Malaysia’.

This is the “Mahathir factor” in GE14, maybe even the “Superman factor”, which the ROS decision has implicitly conceded and reminded voters of once again. This means all Harapan component parties are rivals of BN, but the ‘real’ rival is Dr M himself.

Blessing in disguise?

Harapan has often been criticised rightly or wrongly by its opponents for supposedly lacking cohesiveness. The opposition alliance has tried its best to address this concern, but this is where the ROS may actually be a blessing in disguise now. DAP had already announced it will contest under a common logo in Peninsular Malaysia.

Given the ‘the party formerly called Bersatu’ alongside other Harapan component parties will use the common symbol of PKR, this will be the first time the current opposition of Malaysia has come together in such a united front and offered itself as a direct equivalent – and a formidable competitor- on par with BN in the public eye.

Ironically, what was not possible for ROS withholding the registration of Harapan is now possible because of its decision to suspend Bersatu.

Apart from a show of opposition unity, Dr M will reiterate his sincerity by showing his personal ego does not come in the way when it comes to the greater cause.

By accepting the PKR logo, Dr M is going to bury the hatchet with his former protégé-turned-rival-turned-ally former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim once and once for all.

He will also win over remaining sceptics, if any, who are personally loyal to the PKR leader in the opposition camp. Dr M himself enjoys a reputation to voters above partisan identity, so he will not lose any voters either by contesting under the PKR logo.

Harapan has only to gain from a common logo in the aftermath of the ROS decision, even in the absence of a level playing field. Godspeed, GE14! - Mkini