Johor BN may end up not contesting all state seats, say analysts

 The decision to contest all 56 state assembly seats is seen as a prelude to seat negotiations and in preparation for GE16.

In the March 2022 polls, Barisan Nasional won 40 of the 56 seats, while Pakatan Harapan won 12 seats, Perikatan Nasional three and Muda one. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

Johor Barisan Nasional may end up not contesting all 56 state assembly seats at the next state polls despite its declaration on Saturday that it would do so, according to three political analysts.

Instead, the analysts believe the announcement might be merely the prelude to starting seat negotiations among BN’s allies and coalition partners, as well as in preparation for the general election expected before 2028.

Francis Hutchinson.

Francis Hutchinson of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said he believes BN intends to use the impending elections to the Johor and Melaka state assemblies to build momentum ahead of the 16th general election (GE16) and to show that Umno, the coalition’s lynchpin, remains influential.

Hutchinson, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara and University of Tasmania’s James Chin said they had expected Johor BN to announce its intention to stand in all 56 state constituencies, as Johor has long been its stronghold.

In the March 2022 state elections in Johor, Pakatan Harapan managed to draw only about 450,000 votes, less than the 800,000 votes secured in the state polls held during the general elections of 2013 (GE13) and 2018 (GE14), Hutchinson said.

In contrast, he said BN secured about 600,000 votes in all three elections because of its discipline and strong logistics.

“So it is in Umno’s interest to contest separately from PH in Johor, to show they have energy and mojo,” he told FMT.

Azmi Hassan.

Azmi Hassan said BN’s announcement was also aimed at putting PH on alert ahead of the coalition’s convention in Johor today where cooperation with BN for GE16 and the Johor state election is likely to be discussed.

He said that Johor Umno was taking a leaf from US President Donald Trump’s negotiation tactics, by putting forward its strongest demand before any talks between the two sides began.

“Johor Umno is sending a message to Pakatan Harapan, namely, Johor Umno is ready for the polls, with or without PH.”

James Chin.

However, James Chin said BN’s allies should take such pronouncements with a pinch of salt.

“You should not take what he says too seriously,” he said, referring to Johor BN chief and menteri besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi.

“Before every election, parties will declare they want to contest all seats. But that will not happen as long as PH and BN have some sort of understanding. They cannot contest all the seats.”

Chin also thinks that Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi would not agree to Johor BN contesting all 56 seats, as it would send the wrong signal about the PH-BN’s relationship at the federal level.

He said the only way BN could go for all 56 seats is if the coalition decides not to work with PH at the next general election.

“My guess is that they will not end up contesting all 56 seats. They may contest the majority of the seats, but not all,” he said.

The Johor state assembly will be automatically dissolved in April next year, after which a state election must be held within 60 days.

In the March 2022 polls, BN won 40 of the 56 seats, while PH won 12 seats, Perikatan Nasional three and Muda one. - FMT