Economist: GE 'sweet spot' after CNY, outcome may be bitter for opposition

The Economist has speculated that the 14th general election might be held next February after the Chinese New Year celebration.

Describing this as a “sweet spot” to hold the polls, the publication, however, predicted a “bitter outcome” for Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's rivals.

The magazine stated that despite being implicated in embezzlement with regard to the 1MDB scandal, Najib, who has denied such allegations, appeared to be on track to retain his grip on power.

“Confronted with a strengthening opposition, Najib might choose to hold the election sooner, rather than later. But a vote in the next two months would probably coincide with seasonal flooding in rural areas, which might both suppress the vote and make the voters who do turn out, irritable.

“A short delay could avoid this. But the prime minister would not want to wait for long, given that (former opposition leader) Anwar (Ibrahim) might walk free as early as April,” it added.

Anwar is currently serving a five-year prison sentence for a sodomy conviction, which he claimed was fabricated by Najib's administration. The authorities have denied this.

According to The Economist, gerrymandering would be one of the factors to help Najib win the next election.

“At the last election, although the opposition won 51 percent of the vote, it only secured 40 percent of the 222 seats in Parliament. The Election Commission, with government-appointed members, has proposed boundaries for the next contest which will see even more of those who usually vote for the opposition, such as the ethnic-Chinese, crammed into huge constituencies, many of them urban.

“In practice, this means their votes count for less than those of Malays in sparsely populated rural constituencies, who tend to favour Umno.

“The state of Selangor, controlled by an opposition party, has challenged the new boundaries; a decision in the past week by the Federal Court allows them to stand everywhere else,” it stated.

The publication also noted that Najib was “showering voters with cash”.

“The RM280 billion budget for 2018, announced late last month, cuts taxes for more than two million people. It also provides bonuses to some 1.6 million civil servants, which will be paid in two instalments - the first in January and the second in June - with the election likely to fall between the two. Billions will be set aside for rural infrastructure too,” it added.

Meanwhile, The Economist also acknowledged that former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad crossing over the political divide had bolstered the opposition, namely Pakatan Harapan.

Despite the dismal prediction for the opposition coalition, its leaders remain optimistic, claiming that a political tsunami among Malay voters in rural areas could tip the balance.- Mkini