Cloud of uncertainty hangs over Johor MB candidates

GE14 | Going into the 14th general election, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over BN in Johor.

This arose after BN nominated its Johor chief and caretaker state menteri besar Mohamed Khaled Nordin for both state and parliamentary seats - Permas and Pasir Gudang respectively - raising the possibility he could be moved back to the federal government.

In states where BN had previously won, it was uncommon for the coalition to field candidates in both state and parliamentary seats.

This scenario is more likely in states where BN had lost, for example Kelantan, where leaders are groomed for federal leadership but take a state seat to ensure sufficient menteri besar candidates in the event BN wins.

Johor BN leaders have been coy about Khaled's future, which is not unusual as they do not want to put the cart before the horse.

The menteri besar position must receive royal consent and it is worth noting that Johor has among the most influential royal households in the country.

But there are other ways to provide certainty, as seen in the run-up to the last general election.

Then, rumours had been swirling that Khaled would be taking over as Johor menteri besar.

The speculation was further solidified when Khaled was shifted from the parliamentary seat of Pasir Gudang to the state seat of Permas, and then incumbent Johor menteri besar Abdul Ghani Othman was moved from the state seat of Serom to the parliamentary seat of Gelang Patah (now renamed Iskandar Puteri).

The current uncertainty has cause whispers among local BN leaders about Khaled's possible successor if BN wins the state.

Earlier this month, The Star highlighted talk that Khaled may be replaced due to the "palace factor".

This was further fuelled when BN's incumbent Kukup assemblyperson Suhaimi Salleh was dropped at the eleventh hour in favour of Md Othman Yusoff, who is the Tanjung Piai Umno division chief and executive director of Country Garden Pacificview Sdn Bhd.

Country Garden Pacificview is best known for the Forest City project, which is a joint venture between China's Guangdong-based Country Garden, Johor sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar and the Johor government.

Forest City link

The Johor monarch and state government have a 34 percent stake in the mega project through Esplanade Danga 88 Sdn Bhd.

Malaysiakini previously reported that within Esplanade Danga 88 Sdn Bhd, Sultan Ibrahim controls 64.4 percent of the company while the state government through Kumpulan Prasarana Rakyat Johor (KPRJ) owns 20 percent.

Daing A Malek Daing A Rahaman, a member of the royal court of advisers to the Johor sultan, owns the remaining 15.6 percent stake.

Likewise, the three directors who sit on Esplanade's board are Sultan Ibrahim, Daing A Malek and Othman.

Othman was the Kukup assemblyperson after 2008, but was not fielded in the last general election in 2013.

Othman's name is now on the lips of local politicians who are keenly watching his imminent return to the Johor state assembly.

In the 2008 general election, Othman won the Kukup state seat with a 8,639-vote majority. His successor Suhaimi retained the seat for BN with a 6,946-vote majority in the 2013 general election.

BN sources told Malaysiakini Suhaimi was only informed that he was dropped at the last minute, as the Umno supreme council only confirmed Othman's candidacy at the eleventh hour.

Later, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak made a surprise visit to Tanjung Piai on April 19 where he announced more than RM6 million in allocations for local fishermen, farmers and ranchers, as well as to develop Kukup town and enlarge the Pontian hospital.

Kukup is one of two state seats under Tanjung Piai. The other state seat is Pekan Nanas. Najib's move was seen as a booster for Othman.

A local BN source said they were taken by surprise, as Najib's aide gave local leaders only three days to prepare for their party chief’s visit.

“In the last GE, we were given one week to prepare for Najib's visit to the state seat of Pekan Nanas... But this time, it was a rush," he said.

Othman, when asked to respond to speculations about him being Umno’s next Johor menteri besar candidate, did not want to confirm or deny the rumours.

"Our mission is to win the election. The nominee (is not important). What is important is that we win," he said.

Reinforcement in Pasir Gudang

However, another BN source argued Khaled contesting both a federal and a state seat did not necessarily mean that he would be replaced as Johor menteri besar.

The local Umno leader said Khaled was fairly popular and therefore was needed to boost BN in Pasir Gudang.

Khaled won the parliamentary seat of Pasir Gudang by an unassailable 17,281-vote majority in the 2008 general election.

When Khaled was moved to the state seat of Permas in 2013, he won a larger majority of 5,752 votes than the 2,018-vote majority BN won in 2008.

However, Khaled's successor for the Pasir Gudang seat, Normala Abdul Samad, narrowly won the seat.

Khaled's strong majority in the 2008 general election almost evaporated completely as she only won by a razor-thin 935-vote majority.

"Khaled is a good leader, he can grow, be it at the federal or state level," said the source.

Despite the justification, the uncertainties are unlikely to die down due to Khaled's dual candidacy.

In the past, BN had usually given a clear signal if there is to be a change of menteri besar.

Apart from Ghani's example, then outgoing Malacca chief minister Mohd Ali Mohd Rustam in the 2013 general election moved from a state seat to a parliamentary seat, while outgoing Penang chief minister Koh Tsu Koon made a similar move in the 2008 general election.

Even though both Ghani and Mohd Ali lost in the parliamentary seat of Gelang Patah and Bukit Katil respectively, they had a clear successor in line. For Ghani, it was Khaled and for Mohd Ali, it was Idris Haron.

In contrast, Penang BN, which was unable to provide a clear successor to Koh, saw the issue being capitalised by the opposition.

BN suffered a landslide defeat in Penang during the 2008 general election.

Already, Johor Pakatan Harapan has begun to play up the issue.

On Tuesday, Johor Pakatan Harapan issued a statement questioning if Khaled's dual candidacy was a sign that his political career in the state government was coming to an end.

But such a strategy is a doubled-edged sword.

On April 6, Harapan was widely speculated that it would announce the coalition's Johor menteri besar candidate if it wins the state. However, the plan was later scrapped.

Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, who is contesting the parliamentary seat of Pagoh and state seat of Gambir, is widely seen as Harapan's menteri besar candidate. But Harapan has to date chosen not to put that on record.

Muhyiddin was the Johor menteri besar from 1986 to 1995.

Bersatu sources told Malaysiakini that Harapan was holding back on announcing its menteri besar candidate as it was a "sensitive issue" as the coalition must consider the Johor palace.

Sultan Ibrahim had previously criticised Muhyiddin indirectly, without naming him. - Mkini