WATCH CUBA TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO IRAN

 This is another map of the Iranian coastline at about 6:30 pm KL time, Wed 22 April 2026.  That yellow highlight shows almost zero ship movements into and out of Iran.

Today President Trump has announced that the ceasefire with Iran will NOT be ended. The ceasefire will be extended indefinitely. Meaning the shooting war by the US/Israel is over.

What about the Iranian side? Let me make a prediction - there will be another round of firing missiles and drones from the Iranian regime. They will also keep making threats against shipping in the Hormuz which will frighten the marine insurers and the ship captains. Ship movement in Hormuz will be affected. Lets see.

President Trump is also quite resolute about the naval blockade against the regime. Some observers with links inside Iran (Pakistani) are already saying that there are major stresses developing inside Iran like prices of goods (inflation) going up super fast. This is because almost all imports have been cut off.

Iranians will not starve. In the 90s I visited Iraq after George Bush Senior had imposed crippling embargoes against Iraq (First Gulf War). They could not even import magazines and scientific journals from overseas. The people ended up dressing poorly and their women suffered shortages of haircare, cosmetics and hygiene products. But on the other hand they had plenty of locally produced food and people still had spending money because imports had all been cut off. Smuggled imported stuff fetched very high prices. I think this is going to happen to Iran.

Another country that is facing extreme problems is Cuba. Their oil imports (mostly from Venezuela) have been cut off - after the Venezuelan president Maduro was  'çaptured' by American special forces in under two hours. Large parts of Cuba now have only one hour of electricity per day. Water supply has been cut because water pumps have no electricity.  Cubans are beginning to demonstrate in large numbers in the streets.

Observers say the Cuban regime will not last more than a few months. So far President Trump has not offered them any deals. Which is bad news for Cuba. I think Cuba really needs a regime change.  For about 70 years their one party system has not delivered social justice in any good quantity. 

I think what is happening to Cuba will also happen to the regime in Iran. There is absolutely no way the Iranian regime can withstand the military, economic and political might of the United States. I am just stating the facts.

Oil prices have moved up a little to US$90 per barrel (WTI). Right now (7 pm KL time Wed 22 April 2026) the New York Stock Exchange has not opened for business yet.  Another two and a half hours to go (they open at 9:30 am New York time).

But the Nikkei in Tokyo is already up slightly. Shanghai is also up slightly. I suppose in a couple of hours the Dow Jones may open slightly higher as well. 

Meaning the sky is not falling.   

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT