Early Johor polls give BN ‘best window’ to reassert dominance

 Awang Azman Pawi says Johor is one of the few states where BN still has a strong grassroots structure and a functioning election machinery.

Barisan Nasional secured a landslide victory in the 2022 state polls, winning 40 of the 56 seats in the Johor state assembly. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

Barisan Nasional’s decision to call for a state election in Johor provides the coalition with the “best window” to reassert itself as a dominant political force, according to an analyst.

Awang Azman Pawi.

Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said Johor remains one of BN’s few strongholds, with a well-entrenched grassroots network and functioning election machinery.

He said BN’s confidence also stems from its landslide victory in the 2022 state polls, when it secured 40 of the 56 seats.Awang Azman said BN had good reason to move early, as waiting would allow cost of living issues to bite harder, give Perikatan Nasional more time to rebuild its Malay base, and hand Pakatan Harapan room to grow in urban and semi-urban seats.

“For BN, the earlier the contest is held, the better its chances of facing opponents who may not yet be fully prepared,” he said.

Awang Azman said menteri besar and Johor BN chairman Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s push for the early elections was not merely a tactical decision but a major test of whether the coalition can still stand as the dominant force in a state without leaning too heavily on the unity government formula in Putrajaya.

He said Onn Hafiz gives BN an added edge, seen as a young leader with a stable administration, strong ties to the palace, and solid backing from Johor’s Umno machinery.

“When Onn Hafiz says BN will contest all 56 seats, the message is not only for PH and PN. It is also a message to Umno members that Johor wants to become the laboratory for BN’s ‘solo’ comeback,” he said.

However, Awang Azman said the strategy was not without risk, as failure to retain a large majority would weaken the narrative that Johor was a BN fortress.

“If BN only wins narrowly, or has to depend on PH after fighting against it, people will ask why they had to fight first if they were going to become friends again later,” he said.

Azmi Hassan.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said the timing of the election made sense when viewed against the difficulties faced by BN’s rivals.

PN is dealing with internal tensions, while PH faces its own challenges, the most recent being Skudai assemblyman Marina Ibrahim’s unexpected departure from politics and the emergence of the Rafizi Ramli-led Parti Bersama Malaysia.

He added that BN’s strength in Johor should not be treated as a reflection of its national standing, as the state has long been an Umno stronghold.

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Azizuddin Sani noted that BN’s big win in 2022 came at a time when lingering concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic dampened turnout, with many non-Malay voters also staying away from the polls.

Azizuddin said BN still had a good chance of winning, as the Johor government was seen as stable and performing well. However, some seats could be more closely contested if turnout was higher this time.

The dissolution, announced by Onn Hafiz on Monday, came well ahead of the assembly’s scheduled expiry in April next year, triggering a 60-day window for the election to be held.

BN, PH and PN have each said they will be contesting all 56 seats. PH won 12 seats at the last state election while PN claimed three. - FMT