Bersatu may help PH more than itself in NS polls, say analysts

 They say Bersatu is seeking to prove its political relevance, but may give Pakatan Harapan an edge by splitting Malay votes in marginal seats.

Bersatu is contesting 24 of Negeri Sembilan’s 36 state seats, including several marginal constituencies where vote splitting could affect the outcome.

PETALING JAYA:

Bersatu’s decision to contest 24 of the 36 seats in the upcoming Negeri Sembilan state election could split Malay votes in several marginal constituencies, potentially giving Pakatan Harapan an advantage, analysts say.

Awang Azman Pawi and Tawfik Yaakub, both of Universiti Malaya, said Bersatu was seeking to prove its continued relevance following its fallout with PAS.

However they warned that the party may end up playing the role of spoiler rather than winning at the ballot box on August 1.

Awang Azman said Bersatu will want to test the strength of its brand while looking to retain grassroots support and show it still had political influence without PAS.

Awang Azman Pawi.

“However, in practical terms, Bersatu has the potential to become a spoiler in more seats than it can win,” he told FMT.

Bersatu, which remains a PN component despite fractured ties with PAS, is contesting under its own banner in Negeri Sembilan. That move, however, has created multi-cornered fights in several constituencies.

Of the 24 seats Bersatu is contesting, 10 are held by Barisan Nasional, nine by PH and five by PN. Many of these seats were won by narrow margins in the 2023 state election.

Both analysts said Bersatu’s support base overlaps with that of PAS, PN and a segment of Malay voters who lean towards BN, meaning even a few thousand votes for the party could be enough to alter the outcome in marginal constituencies.

They said the split could hurt PN the most, as Bersatu and PAS are now competing against each other, having previously contested as allies.

“Now, votes from PN supporters are likely to be split, particularly in Serting, Paroi and Bagan Pinang — all held by PAS — as well as Gemas, which was won under the PN-Bersatu banner in 2023.

Tawfik Yaakub.

“The clashes between PN and Bersatu in these seats could result in both candidates losing to PH,” Tawfik said.

Serting, for example, was won by PN-PAS in 2023 with a majority of 843 votes in a straight fight.

BN could also face risks, with eight of the 10 seats contested by Bersatu won with margins below 700 votes in 2023 – Juasseh (78-vote majority), Kota (135), Seri Menanti (370), Sungai Lui (535), Palong (564), Senaling (662), Lenggeng (685) and Jeram Padang (693).

Awang Azman said Bersatu could attract Malay voters who have been unhappy with PH and those who are now unhappy with BN following its cooperation with PAS.

“As a result, BN-PN’s effort to unite the anti-PH vote may fail,” he said.

Awang Azman said the split in Malay votes could help PH defend vulnerable constituencies such as Ampangan and Klawang, both won by less than 600 votes in 2023.

“PH does not necessarily need to significantly increase its support. In some seats, it only needs to maintain its core supporters while Malay votes opposed to PH are divided between BN, PN and Bersatu,” he said.

Both Awang Azman and Tawfik, however, cautioned that any advantage would depend on voter behaviour.

Awang Azman said PH must still secure a strong turnout among non-Malay and urban voters.

Tawfik said the impact of Bersatu being a spoiler would depend on whether BN-PN supporters are convinced to vote strategically instead of backing Bersatu. - FMT