PH needs big voter swing to hit 23-seat target in NS, analyst says

 Ilham Centre’s Hisommudin Bakar says the BN-PN cooperation, excluding Bersatu, makes the goal difficult to achieve.

Before the Negeri Sembilan legislative assembly was dissolved, PH held 17 seats, two short of the simple majority needed to form the state government on its own.

PETALING JAYA:

An analyst has described Pakatan Harapan’s target of winning 23 of the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan election as ambitious but achievable if there is a major shift in voter sentiment.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the target, set by DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook, was likely intended to rally supporters and energise the coalition’s election machinery.

However, he said the understanding between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), excluding Bersatu, made the goal difficult to achieve, including in the eight seats won by BN with majorities of fewer than 700 votes in the 2023 state election.

The seats are Juasseh (78-vote majority), Kota (135), Seri Menanti (370), Sungai Lui (535), Palong (564), Senaling (662), Lenggeng (685) and Jeram Padang (693).

BN and PH were allies in the 2023 state polls.

Hisommudin Bakar.

Hisommudin said these results could no longer be used as a reliable indicator for PH to reach its 23-seat target, even if the coalition retained the 17 state seats it won in the election three years ago.

“Winning 23 seats is not impossible, but it would require a much bigger shift in voter sentiment than what we are seeing now.

“Based on current voting patterns, it remains a very challenging target to achieve,” he told FMT.

He said such a shift would depend, among other factors, on PH’s ability to increase its support among Malay voters without eroding its core non-Malay support.

On Sunday, Loke said PH was targeting 23 seats in the Aug 1 state election to secure a “safe” majority that would ensure political stability for the next five years.

Before the Negeri Sembilan legislative assembly was dissolved, PH held 17 seats, two short of the simple majority needed to form the state government on its own.

Mazlan Ali.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the outcome in marginal seats could determine whether PH wins the Negeri Sembilan election.

He said PH could capture those seats if Bersatu draws enough voters to split the support that would otherwise go to PN and BN.

“The more votes Bersatu takes, the greater PH’s chances of winning,” he said. - FMT