6 takeaways from the Johor polls

 It will be interesting to see if a Blue Wave will sweep through Negeri Sembilan at the Aug 1 polls.

Now that the Johor election is done and dusted, here are my six takeaways on the outcome and the prospects for the political parties.

1. Perikatan Nasional and PAS

Coming away with nothing to show after fielding only 33 candidates is an unforgivable result for a coalition that is supposed to be a government-in-waiting.

PAS contested in 11 seats, Bersatu in 16, the Malaysian Indian People’s Party in 5 and Pejuang one seat.

The number of votes cast for PN candidates was dismal – another embarrassing outcome for a coalition that markets itself as an alternative to the unity government.

Did the PAS-Bersatu breakup have an impact on PN’s campaign? Yes.

Did Abdul Hadi Awang’s Malay-Muslim narrative push non-Malay voters – especially those not too keen on Pakatan Harapan – into Barisan Nasional’s fold? Maybe.

Or did the PAS directive for members and supporters to back BN in constituencies not contested by PN give the impression that the opposition coalition was a headless chicken?

PAS had nothing significant to offer Johor voters save for letting them know their desire to join forces with BN.

Will PAS forge another unofficial pact with BN ahead of the Negeri Sembilan election? Does this mean BN will forge an electoral pact with PN at the next general election? We ordinary folk would really like to know.

My first takeaway is that PAS or PN are now unofficially working with BN to divide Malaysia into two groups: the BN Blue and PN Blue.

2. Parti Bersama Malaysia

All of Bersama’s candidates lost their deposits – ironically, a loss that aligns with Rafizi Ramli’s kamikaze mission. Votes that went to Bersama in Bukit Batu and Perling could have helped PH instead.

(Bersama won 2,996 votes in Perling, where the PH candidate lost by only 1,611 votes. In Bukit Batu, PH lost by only 174 votes, compared to the 821 secured by Bersama.)

Will Bersama now aim to win or will it stick with its kamikaze approach at the next elections?

Will Bersama leader Rafizi Ramli admit that the old politics still have a very strong part to play? Rafizi previously rejected an alliance with Amanah, and the Johor election outcome speaks for itself.

Muda and Parti Sosialis Malaysia also need to think about winning and that calls for a different strategy than just podcasts and views.

Digital popularity does not count, for the most part, with voters on the ground.

3. Voter turnout

The third takeaway is the 68% turnout. The question on everyone’s mind was whether BN would be looking at a different set of voter figures if the turnout was higher, say up to 75%.

My reading of several seats with more than a 70% turnout is that a higher turnout would not have mattered at all, as the votes still went to BN as the majorities in these seats suggested.

4. Chinese votes

The fourth takeaway is that Chinese voters have sent a strong message to DAP, which won only six seats this time compared to the 10 it won in 2022.

My family and I voted in Skudai, and DAP won. I saw many Chinese coming out to vote. I think a great number of Chinese still believe in the DAP while the other half wanted to send a message: buck up or get voted out.

5. Umno and race politics

The fifth takeaway was that Umno did not play upon racial issues as much as it used to in the past. The party’s fiery youth chief, Dr Akmal Saleh, was not seen at front and centre.

The race-based rhetoric was mostly fanned by PAS, namely when party leader Abdul Hadi Awang spoke on the need to preserve a Malay-Muslim dominated government.

Umno’s machinery was in top form and it came off as being more mature.

Even the suggestion by Najib Razak’s son that a BN win was a sign people wanted the former prime minister pardoned had little bearing as it was not part of Umno’s stratagem.

6. Onn Hafiz v Maszlee, DAP

The sixth takeaway is that, in the end, Onn Hafiz Ghazi will have to debate Maszlee Malik – well, in the state assembly at least, after initially turning down the offer to attend a televised debate with the former education minister.

Maszlee was on Saturday elected as the Puteri Wangsa assemblyman.

And with DAP winning six seats, Onn Hafiz will also “share a room” with the party’s assemblymen to debate issues and policies, even if he will not “sit at the same table” with them.

Finally, I believe that we all need to see the outcome of the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug 1. If a similar Blue Wave were to sweep through the state, PH will need a miracle to pull off a win at the federal level.

It seems absolutely clear that PH is dancing to BN’s election tune as it does not have any strategy to counter the inevitable BN-PN combo in any election any time soon.

So, congratulations to Umno and BN for a well deserved win in managing the state without any bans on pig farming or strange guidelines for non-Muslim religious houses of worship, or Friday prayers at malls.

PH would do well to take a hint. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.