Lost Harapan: Johor polls data show growing apathy for Team Anwar despite high turnout

 

Turnout and vote share data from the recently concluded Johor state election indicate that a significant number of voters who previously backed Pakatan Harapan simply did not turn up to vote on Saturday.

While an early analysis noted an increase in Harapan’s vote share compared to the last state election, a more accurate comparison is actually against the 15th general election.

During Saturday’s election, turnout was at 69.6 percent compared to 75.5 percent in the November 2022 federal polls and 54.9 percent in the March 2022 state election.

In terms of the actual number of voters, 1.89 million Johoreans cast their ballots on Saturday, just 78,000 fewer than in GE15.

But while turnout this time was comparable to the last general election, Harapan’s vote share did not match up.

The coalition’s 32.6 percent vote share is a 9.7 percent drop, or about 213,200 fewer ballots, compared to GE15 - far more than the decline in turnout.

This lends credence to the sentiment that there is growing disenchantment among Harapan supporters - especially among non-Malays - as observed by Malaysiakini and others during the campaign period.

This included a wave of anger and apathy towards Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the coalition over unfulfilled promises, rising costs, and a growing sense of political abandonment.

Compounded by the consolidation of Malay votes - including from Perikatan Nasional - behind BN, this dealt a major blow to Harapan during the Johor polls.

Higher turnout but not much more votes

The evidence supporting this narrative is even more apparent when looking at turnout and vote share data at the individual seat level.

With a few exceptions, Harapan’s vote share in most seats was closer to March 2022 despite the higher turnout.

For example, in Johor Jaya, which DAP lost to MCA, while turnout had increased by 16 percentage points from March 2022, DAP’s vote share only improved by 1.2 percentage points.

In Yong Peng, a seat that Harapan could have won if the 2022 state election had been held in November together with GE15, the vote share increase also did not match the hike in turnout.

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Harapan’s performance was so abysmal that an analysis by electiondata.my found that if GE16 were held last Saturday, the coalition would have only won one parliamentary seat in Johor - Bakri - down from 15 in the last federal polls.

If this trend continues into the Negeri Sembilan election, which will kick off this Saturday, it could spell disaster for Harapan - which has led the state government since 2018.

It could also weaken the raison d'etre (the purpose) for the Madani coalition, with BN more likely to explore a partnership with PAS if it allows them to make a major comeback at the federal level, rather than just clinging on to Harapan for survival. - Mkini