How PAS can deliver Loke's seat and N Sembilan on a platter to BN

 

PAS’ plans to support BN in the Negeri Sembilan state election in the name of Malay-Muslim unity could mark the end of Pakatan Harapan rule in the state.

However, that’s not the only damage such an alliance could deal if PAS manages to keep its Perikatan Nasional coalition out of certain key battlefields.

An analysis of voting results from the 15th general election indicates that in a straight fight, BN could even defeat DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke in his Chennah seat.

Loke has held Chennah since 2013, when PAS and DAP were still allies, and first won the seat with 56 percent of the votes.

However, vote share has steadily declined after PAS split from DAP while Chennah’s Malay electorate slowly grew, from 44 percent in 2018 to 46 percent in 2022.

By the November 2022 general election, support for Harapan in Chennah had dropped to 44 percent according to an analysis of votes cast in the state seat at the Parliament level.

BN and PN, meanwhile, had a combined vote share of 56 percent that year.

If this voting pattern persists, or if turnout for Harapan is lower, as was observed in the recently concluded Johor election, then a straight fight between MCA and DAP could lead to a humiliating defeat for the latter.

Swing in Malay support

In the 2023 state election, BN did not clash with Harapan in Chennah and other seats as the two were contesting as a team.

However, the state polls did indicate a surge in support for PN in Negeri Sembilan compared to GE15, indicating a swing from BN voters who were not ready to cast their ballots for Harapan and DAP.

The consolidation of Malay votes in Johor behind BN - which allowed it to win 48 out of 56 seats - is likely a good indicator that vote transfer from PN to BN is very possible in Negeri Sembilan as well.

Besides Loke, another potential high-profile casualty of a BN-PAS alliance could be caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun.

In GE15, only 41 percent of voters in Aminuddin’s state seat, Sikamat, voted for Harapan at the federal level, while 58 percent voted for either BN or PN.

Further, Aminuddin - who is of Javanese descent - also risks protest votes from Minangkabau constituents over his perceived bungling of Adat Perpatih customary laws, which led to the royal crisis in Negeri Sembilan, where there are two claimants to the throne.

Other seats that are at risk in a straight fight between Harapan and BN are Klawang, Ampangan, and Pilah.

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Combined, these five constituencies would give BN 19 seats in Negeri Sembilan, enough to form a state government.

BN says ‘no’, but PAS insists

While BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has rejected cooperation with PAS in Negeri Sembilan, the latter is expected to maintain a similar course as in Johor, where the Islamist party ordered its supporters to vote BN in seats where PN didn’t contest.

If PAS and PN only make way for BN in these seats but clash in other seats, BN could still come out on top.

As seen in Johor, PN’s infighting is being reflected at the ballot box, with PAS and Bersatu supporters appearing not to vote for each other’s candidates.

The timeline is short enough that it is unlikely that PN can patch things up quickly enough to consolidate support.

Nominations for the Negeri Sembilan election are this Saturday, with voting on Aug 1. - Mkini